TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Vorisek vs Filip Strejc 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 2 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Vorisek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Vorisek at 62.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vorisek 104–89 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 89 of their 193 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vorisek beat Strejc 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3362.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vorisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
104-89 in 193
Vorisek
Wrong
gap of 15 in 193, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorisek 1753 vs Strejc 1653
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorisek 60% vs Strejc 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorisek 70% vs Strejc 40%
Vorisek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorisek +2 · Strejc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Vorisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorisek 1.533 / Strejc 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vorisek)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273708
Vorisek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 99 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Strejc2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorisek6wins
AwayStrejc4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorisek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorisek60%3 of 5
AwayStrejc40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorisek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S2Vorisek7Strejc3n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S3Vorisek6Strejc4n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S4Vorisek5Strejc4n = 9Vorisek took 5 of 9
S5Vorisek2Strejc3n = 5Strejc took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorisekStrejcV − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.639.0+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorisekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 803 vs 213 / 47750.9%44.7%409 / 803 vs 213 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekVorisek 1.53/Strejc 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 08:25T. Vorisek43911111113F. Strejc4511981162
LOct 9 · 20:20T. Vorisek341157111F. Strejc4051111133
WOct 8 · 18:39T. Vorisek3811115113F. Strejc30681151
LOct 8 · 14:55T. Vorisek4412711772F. Strejc481011511113
WSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek51991111113F. Strejc3911116472
WSep 25 · 21:30T. Vorisek331111113F. Strejc219660
LSep 25 · 18:20T. Vorisek557111112142F. Strejc57117914163
WSep 13 · 06:55T. Vorisek43111110113F. Strejc32791241
LSep 11 · 21:25T. Vorisek4471191162F. Strejc44112119113
WSep 6 · 16:50T. Vorisek4181111113F. Strejc34119771
T. Vorisek10
WOct 10 · 09:25D. Jicha1.73711611112T. Vorisek2.00118113133WOct 10 · 08:25T. Vorisek1.44911111113F. Strejc2.6311981162LOct 10 · 06:55V. Benak1.911111113T. Vorisek1.809870WOct 9 · 21:53J. Zlamal1.578790T. Vorisek2.251111113LOct 9 · 20:20F. Strejc2.2551111133T. Vorisek1.571157111WOct 9 · 19:50D. Jicha1.731157101T. Vorisek2.0091111123LOct 9 · 18:50T. Vorisek2.3851111552J. Zlamal1.53119811113WOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc2.10681151T. Vorisek1.6711115113WOct 8 · 17:25V. Benak1.9178111122T. Vorisek1.80111185113WOct 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.4415211113L. Soucek2.631311751
F. Strejc10
WOct 10 · 08:55V. Benak1.7397100F. Strejc2.001111123LOct 10 · 08:25T. Vorisek1.44911111113F. Strejc2.6311981162WOct 10 · 07:25F. Strejc2.001111113D. Jicha1.739690LOct 9 · 21:23D. Jicha1.7311115113F. Strejc2.00351181WOct 9 · 20:20F. Strejc2.2551111133T. Vorisek1.571157111LOct 9 · 19:20F. Strejc2.7511118992J. Zlamal1.40891111113LOct 9 · 18:20F. Strejc1.91115971D. Jicha1.8081111113LOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc2.10681151T. Vorisek1.6711115113WOct 8 · 16:55F. Strejc1.731015118113L. Soucek2.00121371162LOct 8 · 15:55F. Strejc2.10118111092V. Benak1.67411812113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.