TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Ladislav Hendrych 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117311115117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:29 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Ladislav Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Roman Merkl at 57.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 2–1 Ladislav Hendrych Ladislav Hendrych has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Merkl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1504 vs Hendrych 1508
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Hendrych 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Hendrych 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Hendrych +3
Hendrych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Merkl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hendrych form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.615 / Hendrych 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Merkl)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270968
Merkl1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 35 of 50
Hendrych2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 35 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMerkl2wins
AwayHendrych1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMerkl leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl0Hendrych3n = 3Hendrych took 3 of 3
S2Merkl2Hendrych1n = 3Merkl took 2 of 3
S3Merkl2Hendrych1n = 3Merkl took 2 of 3
S4Merkl3Hendrych0n = 3Merkl took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMerklHendrychM − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match44.740.7+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 563 vs 197 / 37247.3%53%266 / 563 vs 197 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.61/Hendrych 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 20 · 18:00R. Merkl3961111113L. Hendrych27116371
WJul 14 · 20:48R. Merkl528111111113L. Hendrych4211135672
LJul 14 · 19:45R. Merkl4351271272L. Hendrych5311101110113
R. Merkl10
LOct 10 · 07:30R. Merkl1.509111051M. Cizek2.5011912113LOct 10 · 06:30R. Merkl1.738660S. Kalensky2.001111113LOct 3 · 12:30V. Herrmann2.10111129113R. Merkl1.6764111152LOct 3 · 11:30T. Hybl1.671311113R. Merkl2.1011670WOct 3 · 11:00R. Merkl1.8011118113V. Herrmann1.91661181LOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113
L. Hendrych10
LOct 10 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.5091112113L. Hendrych2.501161031LOct 10 · 07:00M. Cizek1.571611113L. Hendrych2.2514670WOct 7 · 21:09T. Bertho1.73911881L. Hendrych2.0011911113WOct 7 · 19:30J. Tichy1.67101112322L. Hendrych2.101231011113WOct 7 · 18:58L. Hendrych3.001111143M. Cizek1.3687120LOct 7 · 18:00L. Hendrych2.001191171T. Bertho1.7361113113LOct 2 · 20:29L. Hendrych2.386870Z. Kuksa1.531111113LOct 2 · 20:00L. Hendrych1.8012990F. Kubos1.911411113LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Kuksa1.61211148113L. Hendrych2.20117121172LOct 2 · 18:00M. Cizek1.501113113L. Hendrych2.5081180
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