TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Kalensky vs Ladislav Hendrych 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111161210113––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:34 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Stepan Kalensky @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Ladislav Hendrych below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 73 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Stepan Kalensky at 64.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 29–12 Ladislav Hendrych Ladislav Hendrych has won 12 of their 41 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:34Sent to Pro: Stepan Kalensky @ 1.50 · Won
64.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-12 in 41
Kalensky
Correct
gap of 17 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1500 vs Hendrych 1481
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 60% vs Hendrych 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 30% vs Hendrych 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +1 · Hendrych -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kalensky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hendrych form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.50 / Hendrych 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kalensky)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270507
Kalensky1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Hendrych2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 35 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky8wins
AwayHendrych2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKalensky leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky85.7%6 of 7
AwayHendrych33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky7Hendrych3n = 10Kalensky took 7 of 10
S2Kalensky3Hendrych7n = 10Hendrych took 7 of 10
S3Kalensky8Hendrych2n = 10Kalensky took 8 of 10
S4Kalensky6Hendrych3n = 9Kalensky took 6 of 9
S5Kalensky2Hendrych1n = 3Kalensky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskyHendrychK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.0+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 503 vs 197 / 37453.7%52.7%270 / 503 vs 197 / 374Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.50/Hendrych 2.50
Hit
What we said
64.1%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Stepan Kalensky @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–1
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 15:30S. Kalensky44116115113L. Hendrych4091141152
LJul 20 · 19:30S. Kalensky30491161L. Hendrych3811115113
WJul 2 · 21:04S. Kalensky3951111123L. Hendrych361169101
WJul 2 · 20:00S. Kalensky4611159113L. Hendrych354131171
WJun 2 · 19:00S. Kalensky331111113L. Hendrych228770
WMay 8 · 08:00S. Kalensky44118113113L. Hendrych4351181182
WMay 5 · 18:45S. Kalensky3811511113L. Hendrych30911551
LApr 17 · 18:00S. Kalensky4713791172L. Hendrych521111118113
WApr 10 · 19:15S. Kalensky4311912113L. Hendrych379111071
S. Kalensky10
WOct 10 · 06:30R. Merkl1.738660S. Kalensky2.001111113LOct 10 · 06:00M. Cizek2.251011117113S. Kalensky1.5712781182WOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 19:30V. Toman2.001111163S. Kalensky1.7339140WOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.101181051T. Bertho1.6771112113LSep 29 · 20:28S. Kalensky2.759340J. Gruber1.401111113LSep 29 · 19:30J. Gruber1.531111123S. Kalensky2.3879100LSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.10711111492T. Bertho1.67119916113
L. Hendrych10
LOct 10 · 08:33L. Hendrych2.636870R. Merkl1.441111113LOct 10 · 07:00M. Cizek1.571611113L. Hendrych2.2514670LOct 10 · 05:30R. Merkl1.6111311113L. Hendrych2.20711571WOct 7 · 21:09T. Bertho1.73911881L. Hendrych2.0011911113WOct 7 · 19:30J. Tichy1.67101112322L. Hendrych2.101231011113WOct 7 · 18:58L. Hendrych3.001111143M. Cizek1.3687120LOct 7 · 18:00L. Hendrych2.001191171T. Bertho1.7361113113LOct 2 · 20:29L. Hendrych2.386870Z. Kuksa1.531111113LOct 2 · 20:00L. Hendrych1.8012990F. Kubos1.911411113LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Kuksa1.61211148113L. Hendrych2.20117121172
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