TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Adamus vs Jakub Michalski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114911911––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched: 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
711114911911––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 23–13 Jakub Michalski Jakub Michalski has won 13 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1374.7%Our read71.9%to break even at 1.39
clears by 2.8pp71.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.39 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-13 in 36
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 10 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1402 vs Michalski 1166
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 236 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Michalski 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 90% vs Michalski 20%
Adamus
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Michalski -3
Michalski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.39 / Michalski 2.79
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Adamus)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13270957
Adamus1.39
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 200 of 374
Up 2–0, closes it88% 70 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it70% 134 of 191
Michalski2.79
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 74 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back11% 19 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus7wins
AwayMichalski3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus75%3 of 4
AwayMichalski33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Michalski6n = 10Michalski took 6 of 10
S2Adamus6Michalski4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus6Michalski4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus6Michalski2n = 8Adamus took 6 of 8
S5Adamus3Michalski2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusMichalskiA − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.438.5+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusMichalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime787 / 1614 vs 389 / 101648.8%38.3%787 / 1614 vs 389 / 1016Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.233.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.39/Michalski 2.79
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 23:30M. Adamus331111113J. Michalski196850
LAug 28 · 19:10M. Adamus47118611112J. Michalski46611115133
LAug 1 · 01:55M. Adamus28126100J. Michalski371411123
WJul 31 · 19:55M. Adamus481011115113J. Michalski4312781152
WApr 12 · 04:40M. Adamus4491311113J. Michalski351111851
WApr 11 · 22:40M. Adamus4313811113J. Michalski351111851
WJan 1 · 13:20M. Adamus47711711113J. Michalski4111811292
LJan 1 · 09:20M. Adamus4361191162J. Michalski47119115113
WNov 18 · 13:45M. Adamus49117119113J. Michalski4681181182
WNov 18 · 11:20M. Adamus4281112113J. Michalski361181071
M. Adamus10
WOct 9 · 18:20M. Adamus1.80135911113T. Lojtek1.90111111532WOct 7 · 08:20M. Adamus1.531112118133J. Nowak2.38614511112LOct 7 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.82111154113M. Adamus1.885871182WOct 7 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.159590M. Adamus1.601111113WOct 7 · 05:10M. Adamus1.961111113P. Adamus1.767870WOct 7 · 04:00M. Adamus1.68913116113A. Burkacki2.05111191172WOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133WOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082
J. Michalski10
LOct 9 · 17:55R. Szymik1.081111113J. Michalski6.004690LOct 3 · 04:40J. Michalski2.657580A. Ruszkiewicz1.401111113LOct 3 · 03:05D. Fira1.55101111123J. Michalski2.251288101WOct 3 · 02:20K. Kowalski2.158250J. Michalski1.601111113WOct 3 · 01:30J. Michalski—11114113H. Tkaczyk—881171LOct 3 · 00:20J. Michalski2.80581141R. Wiza1.3711119113LOct 2 · 23:00J. Michalski2.558920A. Ruszkiewicz1.461111113LOct 2 · 21:50D. Fira1.4981111113J. Michalski2.46115971LOct 2 · 21:15R. Wiza1.441111113J. Michalski2.622650LOct 2 · 20:40J. Michalski5.50116111162H. Tkaczyk1.13131143113
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