TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Stepan Kalensky 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611611––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Roman Merkl at 54.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 8–7 Stepan Kalensky Stepan Kalensky has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2054.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1489 vs Kalensky 1500
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Kalensky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Kalensky 30%
Merkl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl +1 · Kalensky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Merkl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.727 / Kalensky 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Merkl)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270795
Merkl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 35 of 50
Kalensky2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayKalensky6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKalensky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl50%3 of 6
AwayKalensky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl6Kalensky4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Merkl3Kalensky7n = 10Kalensky took 7 of 10
S3Merkl4Kalensky6n = 10Kalensky took 6 of 10
S4Merkl5Kalensky3n = 8Merkl took 5 of 8
S5Merkl1Kalensky3n = 4Kalensky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklKalenskyM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.2−1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 558 vs 270 / 50347.1%53.7%263 / 558 vs 270 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.73/Kalensky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:30R. Merkl208660S. Kalensky331111113
WSep 14 · 19:30R. Merkl4111811113S. Kalensky31611591
LAug 27 · 17:45R. Merkl4294111172S. Kalensky45111166113
WAug 12 · 19:00R. Merkl539121110113S. Kalensky44111051262
LAug 1 · 08:59R. Merkl2481060S. Kalensky341112113
WAug 1 · 05:15R. Merkl4211911113S. Kalensky36911791
WJul 20 · 20:58R. Merkl4511149113S. Kalensky347121141
LJul 20 · 18:30R. Merkl34119951S. Kalensky3961111113
LJul 12 · 14:30R. Merkl3711115552S. Kalensky48691111113
LJul 7 · 19:45R. Merkl44111061162S. Kalensky48612118113
R. Merkl10
LOct 10 · 07:30R. Merkl1.509111051M. Cizek2.5011912113WOct 10 · 05:30R. Merkl1.6111311113L. Hendrych2.20711571LOct 3 · 12:30V. Herrmann2.10111129113R. Merkl1.6764111152LOct 3 · 11:30T. Hybl1.671311113R. Merkl2.1011670WOct 3 · 11:00R. Merkl1.8011118113V. Herrmann1.91661181LOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113
S. Kalensky10
WOct 10 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.5091112113L. Hendrych2.501161031LOct 10 · 06:00M. Cizek2.251011117113S. Kalensky1.5712781182WOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 19:30V. Toman2.001111163S. Kalensky1.7339140WOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.101181051T. Bertho1.6771112113LSep 29 · 20:28S. Kalensky2.759340J. Gruber1.401111113LSep 29 · 19:30J. Gruber1.531111123S. Kalensky2.3879100LSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.10711111492T. Bertho1.67119916113
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