TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Karel Brozhik vs Richard Krejci 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113113811116117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Brozhik to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Brozhik above · Richard Krejci below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Karel Brozhik at 62.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Karel Brozhik 2–1 Richard Krejci Richard Krejci has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5662.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Brozhik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozhik 1562 vs Krejci 1577
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozhik 40% vs Krejci 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozhik 30% vs Krejci 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozhik -1 · Krejci -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Brozhik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozhik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozhik 1.50 / Krejci 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Brozhik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13270680
Brozhik1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 47 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 33 of 44
Krejci2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrozhik2wins
AwayKrejci1wins
Brozhik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozhik2Krejci1n = 3Brozhik took 2 of 3
S2Brozhik2Krejci1n = 3Brozhik took 2 of 3
S3Brozhik2Krejci1n = 3Brozhik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrozhikKrejciB − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match35.734.3+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozhikKrejciBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 686 vs 197 / 37248.7%53%334 / 686 vs 197 / 372Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozhikBrozhik 1.50/Krejci 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Brozhik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozhik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 4 · 23:00K. Brozhik3911611113R. Krejci32411981
LSep 29 · 21:30K. Brozhik34512981R. Krejci43111011113
WSep 29 · 20:30K. Brozhik341211113R. Krejci2810990
K. Brozhik10
LOct 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.8011413113K. Brozhik1.917111161WOct 8 · 02:58A. Hlawatschke2.0048121182K. Brozhik1.731111106113WOct 8 · 02:00K. Brozhik1.5771113113F. Just2.251151151LOct 8 · 01:00K. Brozhik1.617770V. Cermak2.201111113LOct 8 · 00:00M. Vizek1.67111186123K. Brozhik2.10681111102LOct 7 · 22:30A. Hlawatschke1.8071111123K. Brozhik1.911187101LOct 5 · 20:58M. Vedmoch2.501111113K. Brozhik1.504940LOct 5 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.337111151M. Vedmoch3.2511813113LOct 5 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.4461111962T. Janata2.63114611113WOct 5 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.20511481K. Brozhik1.6111811113
R. Krejci10
LOct 9 · 03:28P. Zmuda1.80281111113R. Krejci1.9111115782WOct 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.671111113R. Pavelka2.105260LOct 9 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.91121111113R. Krejci1.80143331LOct 9 · 00:00R. Krejci1.2271151142P. Fojt4.00116115113WOct 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.759690R. Krejci1.401111113LOct 8 · 21:00R. Krejci1.917470K. Kapras1.801111113WOct 8 · 20:00M. Volf1.6711148692R. Krejci2.109121111113LOct 8 · 19:00K. Kapras1.831111510123R. Krejci1.83761112102LOct 8 · 18:30R. Krejci2.1071080M. Bittner1.671112113WOct 5 · 03:02R. Pavelka1.915750R. Krejci1.801111113
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