Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Volodymyr Varchenko 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 10Finished

Sergii Skhabitskiy

Home

1.40

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1012119118114––

Volodymyr Varchenko

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:56 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%

Graded at full time

Sergii Skhabitskiy to win

69.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Volodymyr Varchenko below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 76 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 69.1%

76 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 04:56

69.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 2.3pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Skhabitskiy

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Skhabitskiy 1363 vs Varchenko 1164

Skhabitskiy

Correct

both rated, 199 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Skhabitskiy 80% vs Varchenko 20%

Skhabitskiy

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Skhabitskiy 70% vs Varchenko 30%

Skhabitskiy

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Skhabitskiy +1 · Varchenko -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Skhabitskiy) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Varchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.40 / Varchenko 2.75

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Skhabitskiy)-2.3pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13270495

Skhabitskiy1.40

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite58% won 108 of 185

Up 2–0, closes it98% 57 of 58

Up 1–0, closes it83% 82 of 99

Varchenko2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog39% won 20 of 52

Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26

Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricSkhabitskiyVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 1085 vs 109 / 23944.1%45.6%478 / 1085 vs 109 / 239Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Skhabitskiy

Skhabitskiy 1.40/Varchenko 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

69.1%

Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Skhabitskiy won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

S. Skhabitskiy10