TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Eduard Populovskyi 1-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 2
Set by set
81111751199––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched: 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-9
Point 71 set 4, 9-9 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 72.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 16–10 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5772.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Martyniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Martyniuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1497 vs Populovskyi 1367
Martyniuk
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 0% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 20% vs Populovskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk -5 · Populovskyi -1
Martyniuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.363 / Populovskyi 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Martyniuk)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270371
Martyniuk1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Populovskyi3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk62.5%5 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk8Populovskyi2n = 10Martyniuk took 8 of 10
S2Martyniuk6Populovskyi4n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S3Martyniuk5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Martyniuk3Populovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Martyniuk1Populovskyi2n = 3Populovskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.6+2.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 373 vs 339 / 70551.7%48.1%193 / 373 vs 339 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.36/Populovskyi 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.4%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–2
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 4 · 10:20A. Martyniuk45111111121E. Populovskyi4613136143
WOct 3 · 12:30A. Martyniuk331111113E. Populovskyi246990
LOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk3911551172E. Populovskyi49911117113
LSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk47117101182E. Populovskyi50811128113
WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk4211119113E. Populovskyi36991171
LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk29114861E. Populovskyi3961111113
WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk531111812113E. Populovskyi4466111472
WAug 29 · 13:00A. Martyniuk381116113E. Populovskyi2251430
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Martyniuk341211113E. Populovskyi2810990
A. Martyniuk10
WOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113LOct 6 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.4011128113A. Martyniuk2.758101151LOct 6 · 10:05A. Martyniuk2.50116451S. Kyienko1.5091111113LOct 6 · 09:05A. Martyniuk2.2511760Y. Kovshun1.571311113LOct 6 · 07:35A. Martyniuk2.75105100V. Bilobrov1.401211123LOct 6 · 05:35A. Martyniuk2.38314661A. Troyan1.53111211113WOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441LOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121LOct 4 · 09:20A. Martyniuk1.40111171182A. Kovalenko2.75681113113LOct 4 · 08:20S. Solomko2.00111167113A. Martyniuk1.7368111152
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113WOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko3.007750E. Populovskyi1.361111113LOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640LOct 5 · 11:00O. Leonenko1.5712118123E. Populovskyi2.2510911101LOct 5 · 10:00S. Solomko1.171111113E. Populovskyi4.504270WOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121
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