TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Simecek vs Matous Klimenta 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111012––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:44 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMatous Klimenta to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek above · Matous Klimenta below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Matous Klimenta at 58.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek 3–3 Matous Klimenta Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4458.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 5.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Klimenta
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1686 vs Klimenta 1689
Klimenta
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 0% vs Klimenta 20%
Klimenta
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 30% vs Klimenta 10%
Simecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek -6 · Klimenta -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Klimenta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Klimenta form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 2.25 / Klimenta 1.571
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Klimenta)-5.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269278
Simecek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 50 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Klimenta1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSimecek3wins
AwayKlimenta3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKlimenta75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek2Klimenta4n = 6Klimenta took 4 of 6
S2Simecek4Klimenta2n = 6Simecek took 4 of 6
S3Simecek1Klimenta5n = 6Klimenta took 5 of 6
S4Simecek3Klimenta0n = 3Simecek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricSimecekKlimentaS − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match34.533.3+1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekKlimentaBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 239 vs 187 / 33449%56%117 / 239 vs 187 / 334Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KlimentaSimecek 2.25/Klimenta 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Klimenta · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Klimenta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 11 · 00:00J. Simecek2239100M. Klimenta341111123
WJul 16 · 19:30J. Simecek3611113113M. Klimenta26461151
LJun 18 · 21:30J. Simecek3961151162M. Klimenta44116115113
WJun 18 · 18:00J. Simecek5310111011113M. Klimenta3912212942
WJun 1 · 20:58J. Simecek331111113M. Klimenta237970
LJun 1 · 20:30J. Simecek2471070M. Klimenta341112113
J. Simecek10
LOct 11 · 01:30R. Wagner1.801111113J. Simecek1.916380LOct 10 · 23:00O. Svacha1.6711911113J. Simecek2.10611871LOct 2 · 12:58A. Barton1.8011911113J. Simecek1.91411991LOct 2 · 12:30A. Barton1.83115911113J. Simecek1.8331111952LOct 2 · 11:30J. Simecek2.5079100J. Ruzicka1.501111123LOct 2 · 10:30E. Mares1.251311133J. Simecek3.75112110LOct 2 · 09:30J. Ruzicka1.5591111113J. Simecek2.30116171WOct 2 · 08:30L. Jindrak1.5784111152J. Simecek2.25111145113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Simecek5.00812722113E. Mares1.141110112062LOct 2 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.5711911113J. Simecek2.25311761
M. Klimenta10
WOct 11 · 01:00M. Klimenta1.8012912113R. Urbaniec1.9110111041LOct 10 · 22:30R. Wagner2.001311113M. Klimenta1.7311300LSep 25 · 20:58R. Rose2.001111910113M. Klimenta1.7369111282LSep 25 · 20:30M. Klimenta1.675680R. Rose2.101111113LSep 25 · 19:00M. Klimenta1.531541161R. Urbaniec2.3817117113WSep 25 · 18:00J. Mecl Jr2.10118891M. Klimenta1.6781111113LSep 8 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.5061111113M. Klimenta1.50118971LSep 8 · 08:00M. Klimenta1.801311941J. Ruzicka1.91111311113LSep 8 · 07:30R. Urbaniec4.00111110113M. Klimenta1.22791241LSep 8 · 06:00M. Klimenta1.441315107142F. Pusch2.6311131211163
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