TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Jakub Chojnacki 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
711911811––––
H2H Dawid Stapor 3–1 Jakub Chojnacki Jakub Chojnacki has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5964.3%Our read69.4%to break even at 1.44
short by 5.1pp69.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.44 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (63%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1634 vs Chojnacki 1539
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Chojnacki 80%
Chojnacki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Chojnacki 40%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Chojnacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.44 / Chojnacki 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stapor)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268803
Stapor1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 169 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it99% 83 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it87% 127 of 146
Chojnacki2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayChojnacki1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwayChojnackin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Chojnacki0n = 4Stapor took 4 of 4
S2Stapor3Chojnacki1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S3Stapor2Chojnacki2n = 4split evenly
S4Stapor1Chojnacki2n = 3Chojnacki took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporChojnackiS − CBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.836.5+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 926 vs 23 / 5254.1%44.2%501 / 926 vs 23 / 52Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.44/Chojnacki 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.3%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chojnacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 8 · 11:00D. Stapor3611113113J. Chojnacki33951181
WOct 5 · 06:30D. Stapor331111113J. Chojnacki239860
WSep 29 · 07:30D. Stapor491111115113J. Chojnacki3834131172
LSep 28 · 08:00D. Stapor4111812552J. Chojnacki529111011113
D. Stapor10
LOct 9 · 10:00B. Molka2.301111143D. Stapor1.5574120WOct 9 · 08:00S. Radlo2.09811981D. Stapor1.6711811113LOct 9 · 07:00D. Stapor1.831012100M. Lysakowski1.871214123WOct 9 · 06:00J. Masternak2.401011119122D. Stapor1.50128811143LOct 8 · 13:30D. Stapor1.491261181S. Wloszek2.4514119113WOct 8 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4011113113J. Chojnacki2.75951181LOct 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.728111011102S. Wloszek2.02117129123WOct 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.411112113B. Molka2.6091050WOct 8 · 06:30D. Stapor2.15911128113M. Lysakowski1.63114101152WOct 8 · 05:00D. Stapor1.5713811113J. Masternak2.111111851
J. Chojnacki10
WOct 9 · 10:30J. Chojnacki2.1311101012133M. Lysakowski1.649121210112LOct 9 · 08:30J. Masternak1.63118118113J. Chojnacki2.1581191152WOct 9 · 06:30S. Radlo1.3612812892J. Chojnacki2.8510111011113WOct 9 · 05:30B. Molka1.4211741192J. Chojnacki2.69711118113WOct 8 · 12:30J. Masternak2.6081112562J. Chojnacki1.441171011113LOct 8 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4011113113J. Chojnacki2.75951181LOct 8 · 10:00J. Chojnacki2.40111281272B. Molka1.508101114113LOct 8 · 09:00J. Chojnacki2.10812101182J. Masternak1.651110128113LOct 8 · 07:30J. Chojnacki2.4081011101S. Wloszek1.5011129123LOct 8 · 05:30J. Chojnacki2.851191171M. Lysakowski1.3613117113
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