TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Masternak vs Jakub Chojnacki 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118811119811115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched: 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJan Masternak to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
118811119811115
H2H Jan Masternak 2–3 Jakub Chojnacki Jan Masternak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2656.4%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 4.9pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Masternak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Masternak 1529 vs Chojnacki 1535
Chojnacki
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Masternak 20% vs Chojnacki 60%
Chojnacki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Masternak 40% vs Chojnacki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Masternak -3 · Chojnacki +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Masternak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMasternak 1.63 / Chojnacki 2.15
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Masternak)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13267976
Masternak1.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 38 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it68% 30 of 44
Chojnacki2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMasternak2wins
AwayChojnacki3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderChojnacki leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasternakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayChojnacki75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Masternak1Chojnacki4n = 5Chojnacki took 4 of 5
S2Masternak3Chojnacki2n = 5Masternak took 3 of 5
S3Masternak2Chojnacki3n = 5Chojnacki took 3 of 5
S4Masternak1Chojnacki3n = 4Chojnacki took 3 of 4
S5Masternak2Chojnacki1n = 3Masternak took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMasternakChojnackiM − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.445.0−4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasternakChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 939 vs 22 / 5044.1%44%414 / 939 vs 22 / 50Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MasternakMasternak 1.63/Chojnacki 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.4%
Masternak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Masternak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 8 · 12:30J. Masternak4281112562J. Chojnacki501171011113
WOct 8 · 09:00J. Masternak521110128113J. Chojnacki49812101182
LOct 3 · 08:35J. Masternak28312491J. Chojnacki43111011113
WSep 30 · 12:30J. Masternak541011811143J. Chojnacki50129116122
LSep 30 · 10:30J. Masternak268990J. Chojnacki331111113
J. Masternak10
LOct 9 · 07:30B. Molka1.60121311113J. Masternak2.101411891LOct 9 · 06:00J. Masternak2.401011119122D. Stapor1.50128811143LOct 8 · 12:30J. Masternak2.6081112562J. Chojnacki1.441171011113WOct 8 · 11:30S. Wloszek1.815111311142J. Masternak1.90117158163LOct 8 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.531111512163J. Masternak2.358131110142WOct 8 · 09:00J. Chojnacki2.10812101182J. Masternak1.651110128113LOct 8 · 07:00B. Molka1.761111113J. Masternak1.956770LOct 8 · 05:00D. Stapor1.5713811113J. Masternak2.111111851WOct 4 · 23:05J. Masternak—1311113S. Wloszek—11990WOct 4 · 22:05S. Wloszek1.5777100J. Masternak2.251111123
J. Chojnacki10
WOct 9 · 06:30S. Radlo1.3612812892J. Chojnacki2.8510111011113WOct 9 · 05:30B. Molka1.4211741192J. Chojnacki2.69711118113WOct 8 · 12:30J. Masternak2.6081112562J. Chojnacki1.441171011113LOct 8 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4011113113J. Chojnacki2.75951181LOct 8 · 10:00J. Chojnacki2.40111281272B. Molka1.508101114113LOct 8 · 09:00J. Chojnacki2.10812101182J. Masternak1.651110128113LOct 8 · 07:30J. Chojnacki2.4081011101S. Wloszek1.5011129123LOct 8 · 05:30J. Chojnacki2.851191171M. Lysakowski1.3613117113WOct 6 · 13:00M. Lysakowski1.3481090J. Chojnacki3.001112113WOct 6 · 11:30J. Chojnacki1.3811115113M. Galus2.81991181
Upcoming Matches
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