TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Jan Masternak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311811118115––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1311811118115––
H2H Dawid Stapor 48–26 Jan Masternak Jan Masternak has won 26 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5158.0%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
short by 5.7pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (57%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-26 in 74
Stapor
Correct
gap of 22 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1643 vs Masternak 1572
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Masternak 80%
Masternak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 40% vs Masternak 80%
Masternak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Masternak +4
Masternak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masternak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.57 / Masternak 2.11
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stapor)-5.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261743
Stapor1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 166 of 280
Up 2–0, closes it99% 81 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it87% 124 of 143
Masternak2.11
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 112 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back25% 36 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor6wins
AwayMasternak4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwayMasternak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Masternak6n = 10Masternak took 6 of 10
S2Stapor5Masternak5n = 10split evenly
S3Stapor6Masternak4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor4Masternak2n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5Stapor3Masternak2n = 5Stapor took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMasternakS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.2−0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMasternakBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 926 vs 412 / 93654%44%500 / 926 vs 412 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.57/Masternak 2.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 12:00D. Stapor351212113J. Masternak25101050
WSep 25 · 11:30D. Stapor527111310113J. Masternak52119111292
WSep 6 · 22:35D. Stapor49741511123J. Masternak531111138102
LSep 6 · 19:35D. Stapor204970J. Masternak331111113
LSep 5 · 08:05D. Stapor2131260J. Masternak361114113
WSep 2 · 09:00D. Stapor45101111133J. Masternak291215111
WSep 1 · 08:00D. Stapor331111113J. Masternak219480
WAug 27 · 05:30D. Stapor54118159113J. Masternak52811131192
LAug 23 · 18:05D. Stapor4411891242J. Masternak507111110113
LAug 21 · 09:30D. Stapor45911111132J. Masternak51118138113
D. Stapor10
WOct 8 · 06:30D. Stapor2.15911128113M. Lysakowski1.63114101152LOct 7 · 12:30D. Stapor1.52661191P. Gola2.3711117113LOct 7 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.101111113D. Stapor1.668980WOct 7 · 10:30D. Stapor1.531111117113P. Gola2.3513491182LOct 7 · 08:30B. Molka2.301411113D. Stapor1.5512890WOct 7 · 06:30M. Burkacki2.277880D. Stapor1.571111113LOct 7 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.951211113D. Stapor1.7410560WOct 5 · 13:40M. Galus2.107970D. Stapor1.651111113WOct 5 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4671111113P. Gola2.50119881LOct 5 · 09:30D. Stapor2.0541371192M. Galus1.701111116113
J. Masternak10
WOct 4 · 23:05J. Masternak—1311113S. Wloszek—11990WOct 4 · 22:05S. Wloszek1.5777100J. Masternak2.251111123WOct 4 · 20:35J. Masternak2.051116133S. Radlo1.66914110WOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.548911121J. Masternak2.2511118143LOct 4 · 16:35B. Molka1.831111133J. Masternak1.8607110LOct 4 · 15:35M. Burkacki1.831111113J. Masternak1.865880WOct 3 · 14:35J. Masternak2.301111133M. Lysakowski1.5588110WOct 3 · 12:35J. Masternak2.051110911113S. Wloszek1.7061211992WOct 3 · 10:35M. Lysakowski1.4412561782J. Masternak2.5010111115113WOct 3 · 09:35J. Masternak2.001111113B. Molka1.717990
Upcoming Matches
D. Stapor
Nothing scheduled
J. Masternak
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