TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Jan Krupnik 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 53 - H3 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116114––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 45 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Borek Moravec at 67.7%
45 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 17–13 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4067.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Moravec
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1786 vs Krupnik 1600
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Krupnik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Krupnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Krupnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.444 / Krupnik 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Moravec)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268502
Moravec1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 120 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it100% 56 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 86 of 97
Krupnik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 103 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec8wins
AwayKrupnik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%4 of 4
AwayKrupnik33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Moravec7Krupnik3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Moravec9Krupnik1n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S4Moravec4Krupnik1n = 5Moravec took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecKrupnikM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.129.0+7.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 484 vs 497 / 96858.7%51.3%284 / 484 vs 497 / 968Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.44/Krupnik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec4591213113J. Krupnik3311101111
LAug 21 · 16:45B. Moravec177730J. Krupnik331111113
WAug 21 · 13:40B. Moravec331111113J. Krupnik161780
LAug 2 · 06:10B. Moravec35991161J. Krupnik4211119113
WJul 26 · 09:10B. Moravec547141111113J. Krupnik4511164952
WJul 26 · 06:10B. Moravec331111113J. Krupnik177820
WJul 22 · 14:40B. Moravec3631111113J. Krupnik33117961
WJul 19 · 05:45B. Moravec331111113J. Krupnik177460
WJul 16 · 14:15B. Moravec4281211113J. Krupnik361110961
WJul 13 · 15:45B. Moravec331111113J. Krupnik184590
B. Moravec10
WOct 9 · 13:45B. Moravec1.501112113M. Macurak2.5081080LOct 6 · 17:10B. Moravec1.736180L. Slavik2.001111113WOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4491213113J. Krupnik2.6311101111WOct 6 · 14:45B. Moravec1.537101111123D. Skulina2.38111279102WOct 6 · 13:45B. Moravec1.67981211113L. Slavik2.10111110632LOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191LOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113WOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 17:05B. Moravec1.111111113K. Kleprlik6.005260
J. Krupnik10
LOct 9 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.611151211113J. Krupnik2.2041114782WOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 11:45R. Sedlacek1.91111179102J. Krupnik1.80771111123WOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113WOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582LOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691WOct 8 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5781080J. Krupnik2.251112113LOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091LOct 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.83111110582R. Benes1.83991211113LOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4491213113J. Krupnik2.6311101111
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J. Krupnik
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