TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Kamil Kleprlik 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115112116––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:58 and never touched: 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Kamil Kleprlik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 46 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Borek Moravec at 56.4%
46 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 39–26 Kamil Kleprlik Kamil Kleprlik has won 26 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Moravec beat Kleprlik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5856.4%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 33.6pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-26 in 65
Moravec
Correct
gap of 13 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1794 vs Kleprlik 1634
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Kleprlik 80%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 90% vs Kleprlik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +9 · Kleprlik +2
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.111 / Kleprlik 6.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Moravec)-33.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229050
Moravec1.11
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 114 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it90% 81 of 90
Kleprlik6.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 70 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec9wins
AwayKleprlik1wins
Moravec leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%8 of 8
AwayKleprlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec8Kleprlik2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S2Moravec9Kleprlik1n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S3Moravec8Kleprlik2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecKleprlikM − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.721.9+11.8per matchSweeps71+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKleprlikBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 474 vs 265 / 53558.4%49.5%277 / 474 vs 265 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.11/Kleprlik 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.4%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik162590
WSep 24 · 13:40B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik188550
WAug 23 · 09:20B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik133730
WAug 23 · 06:45B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik176650
WAug 22 · 09:20B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik163850
LAug 22 · 05:45B. Moravec216780K. Kleprlik331111113
WAug 8 · 07:10B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik206590
WAug 7 · 15:10B. Moravec4313118113K. Kleprlik351161171
WAug 5 · 17:15B. Moravec331111113K. Kleprlik206590
WAug 5 · 15:15B. Moravec4291111113K. Kleprlik31118841
B. Moravec10
WOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162WOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570WOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec1.361111113K. Kleprlik3.002590WSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770WSep 30 · 14:45B. Moravec1.83116128123J. Pribyl1.834111011102WSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101WSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec1.8311611113J. Pribyl1.83711971LSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113
K. Kleprlik10
WOct 1 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.389840K. Kleprlik1.531111113WOct 1 · 15:10K. Kleprlik1.83117119113F. Chaloupka1.8391171162LOct 1 · 13:40B. Moravec1.361111113K. Kleprlik3.002590WSep 28 · 16:38K. Kleprlik1.361111133D. Pawlik3.0074110WSep 28 · 15:40K. Kleprlik1.91311115113R. Benes1.8011781172LSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113WSep 28 · 13:40K. Kleprlik1.571111113D. Pawlik2.259490WSep 26 · 21:15K. Kleprlik1.5791111113D. Vitasek2.25119861WSep 26 · 20:10R. Solle2.1011981172K. Kleprlik1.67811115113WSep 26 · 19:10K. Kleprlik1.731214113D. Vitasek2.00101270
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