TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Strejc vs Tomas Vorisek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 7 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111151171311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 74 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Tomas Vorisek at 60.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 88–103 Tomas Vorisek Filip Strejc has won 88 of their 191 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1660.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vorisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
88-103 in 191
Vorisek
Wrong
gap of 15 in 191, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1612 vs Vorisek 1742
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 20% vs Vorisek 80%
Vorisek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 30% vs Vorisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -3 · Vorisek +1
Strejc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Vorisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 2.25 / Vorisek 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vorisek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268256
Strejc2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 46 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Vorisek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 101 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it86% 77 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc3wins
AwayVorisek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVorisek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc33.3%2 of 6
AwayVorisek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc6Vorisek4n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S2Strejc3Vorisek7n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S3Strejc3Vorisek7n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S4Strejc3Vorisek6n = 9Vorisek took 6 of 9
S5Strejc3Vorisek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcVorisekS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.944.5−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 472 vs 406 / 79844.5%50.9%210 / 472 vs 406 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekStrejc 2.25/Vorisek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc30681151T. Vorisek3811115113
WOct 8 · 14:55F. Strejc481011511113T. Vorisek4412711772
LSep 28 · 19:20F. Strejc3911116472T. Vorisek51991111113
LSep 25 · 21:30F. Strejc219660T. Vorisek331111113
WSep 25 · 18:20F. Strejc57117914163T. Vorisek557111112142
LSep 13 · 06:55F. Strejc32791241T. Vorisek43111110113
WSep 11 · 21:25F. Strejc44112119113T. Vorisek4471191162
LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc34119771T. Vorisek4181111113
LSep 4 · 18:20F. Strejc42111111182T. Vorisek49681113113
LSep 2 · 14:55F. Strejc4211741192T. Vorisek47711117113
F. Strejc10
LOct 9 · 19:20F. Strejc2.7511118992J. Zlamal1.40891111113LOct 9 · 18:20F. Strejc1.91115971D. Jicha1.8081111113LOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc2.10681151T. Vorisek1.6711115113WOct 8 · 16:55F. Strejc1.731015118113L. Soucek2.00121371162LOct 8 · 15:55F. Strejc2.10118111092V. Benak1.67411812113WOct 8 · 14:55F. Strejc2.251011511113T. Vorisek1.5712711772LOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113WOct 4 · 09:25F. Strejc2.007111510113V. Benak1.73116131292LOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy1.83112711123F. Strejc1.83911115102LOct 4 · 07:25M. Stusek1.83111111113F. Strejc1.83213861
T. Vorisek10
WOct 9 · 19:50D. Jicha1.731157101T. Vorisek2.0091111123LOct 9 · 18:50T. Vorisek2.3851111552J. Zlamal1.53119811113WOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc2.10681151T. Vorisek1.6711115113WOct 8 · 17:25V. Benak1.9178111122T. Vorisek1.80111185113WOct 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.4415211113L. Soucek2.631311751LOct 8 · 14:55F. Strejc2.251011511113T. Vorisek1.5712711772LOct 7 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.5711119113T. Vorisek2.25841181LOct 7 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.5011119113T. Vorisek2.50681181LOct 7 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.8371111862M. Stusek1.83115411113LOct 7 · 18:55F. Cernota1.571111113T. Vorisek2.259980
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