TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Michal Moravec 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119911811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 59.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 14–12 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3059.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Mrowetz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1605 vs Moravec 1597
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 40% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 40% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +2 · Moravec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.571 / Moravec 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Mrowetz)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266737
Mrowetz1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Moravec2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz7wins
AwayMoravec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz100%6 of 6
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz6Moravec4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz8Moravec2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz5Moravec1n = 6Mrowetz took 5 of 6
S5Mrowetz2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzMoravecMrowetz − MoravecBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.838.9+4.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 536 vs 218 / 42850.2%50.9%269 / 536 vs 218 / 428Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.57/Moravec 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 09:40B. Mrowetz37911981M. Moravec4211911113
WSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz381115123M. Moravec32913100
WSep 1 · 06:15B. Mrowetz4212118113M. Moravec381081191
LAug 22 · 17:19B. Mrowetz541012711142M. Moravec551210116163
WAug 22 · 14:10B. Mrowetz559131111113M. Moravec49111113862
WAug 8 · 11:45B. Mrowetz511110811113M. Moravec3751211362
WJul 27 · 11:10B. Mrowetz381116113M. Moravec2981470
WJul 24 · 14:15B. Mrowetz341111123M. Moravec2899100
LJul 22 · 11:10B. Mrowetz531091211112M. Moravec521211106133
WJul 20 · 14:40B. Mrowetz361211133M. Moravec27106110
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 9 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.7311613113R. Benes2.008111171WOct 9 · 10:40B. Mrowetz2.001111113T. Krenek1.734890WOct 6 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.80116116112B. Mrowetz1.91711711133WOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113LOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113LOct 6 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.83771111113B. Mrowetz1.8311119962LOct 5 · 08:53T. Krenek1.40115311113B. Mrowetz2.7581111872WOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880LOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 05:45B. Mrowetz1.91118611102T. Krenek1.80611118123
M. Moravec10
WOct 9 · 12:10T. Krenek1.5711540M. Moravec2.251311113WOct 9 · 11:10M. Moravec1.8351111113R. Benes1.83116991WOct 8 · 12:45M. Moravec1.801111123R. Sedlacek1.9169100LOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133WOct 8 · 10:45R. Sedlacek2.001151381M. Moravec1.7381115113LOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582LOct 6 · 08:38M. Moravec1.80137891R. Sedlacek1.91111111113LOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113LOct 6 · 06:40M. Moravec1.67715111142D. Velky Jr2.10111749113WOct 6 · 05:40M. Moravec1.67101211123R. Sedlacek2.1012105101
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