TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Rafal Komandzik 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117112––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched: 83.0% is still 83.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
83.0%
83.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
117117112––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 1–0 Rafal Komandzik Rafal Komandzik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1983.0%Our read87.7%to break even at 1.14
short by 4.7pp87.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.14 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1468 vs Komandzik 1076
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 392 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 60% vs Komandzik 20%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 70% vs Komandzik 30%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +3 · Komandzik -2
Tkocz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.14 / Komandzik 5.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Tkocz)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266275
Tkocz1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 287 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 241 of 279
Komandzik5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTkocz1wins
AwayKomandzik0wins
Tkocz leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTkoczKomandzikT − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.022.0+20.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKomandzikBasisWin rate · lifetime771 / 1166 vs 4 / 2466.1%16.7%771 / 1166 vs 4 / 24Avg sets wonper match2.41.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.930.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.14/Komandzik 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz4211911113R. Komandzik22711311
M. Tkocz10
WOct 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.78118981M. Tkocz1.9191111113WOct 8 · 18:00K. Adamus1.91871171M. Tkocz1.8011115113WOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130LOct 8 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.8491191152G. Jurowicz1.87118115113LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113LOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940WOct 6 · 22:25A. Burkacki3.17711581M. Tkocz1.3111911113WOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110WOct 6 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141211113R. Adach4.8010720
R. Komandzik10
LOct 8 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.271111113R. Komandzik3.259360LOct 8 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.2211811113R. Komandzik4.00511451WOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.47118881R. Komandzik2.4061111113LOct 8 · 15:10K. Adamus1.601113173R. Komandzik2.10711150LSep 11 · 08:20M. Adamus1.301011911133R. Komandzik3.25124117112WSep 11 · 07:35J. Nowak1.70136661R. Komandzik2.00111111113LSep 11 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.341111113R. Komandzik3.005660WSep 11 · 04:50M. Lebek1.16911771R. Komandzik4.3511311113LSep 11 · 03:10Y. Fomin1.271111113R. Komandzik3.206850LSep 11 · 02:20K. Durak1.221311113R. Komandzik3.7011370
Upcoming Matches
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