TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Sideltsev vs Valentyn Kurliuk 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113114––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 82.6% is still 82.6%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
82.6%
82.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Sideltsev above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 48 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 82.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Sideltsev 14–2 Valentyn Kurliuk Valentyn Kurliuk has won 2 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5782.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 0.7pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Sideltsev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-2 in 16
Sideltsev
Correct
gap of 12 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sideltsev 1512 vs Kurliuk 1385
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sideltsev 80% vs Kurliuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sideltsev 60% vs Kurliuk 80%
Kurliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sideltsev -1 · Kurliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Sideltsev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSideltsev 1.20 / Kurliuk 4.333
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Sideltsev)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13266136
Sideltsev1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 100 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it100% 68 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it88% 83 of 94
Kurliuk4.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSideltsev10wins
AwayKurliuk0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSideltsev leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSideltsev100%9 of 9
AwayKurliukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sideltsev9Kurliuk1n = 10Sideltsev took 9 of 10
S2Sideltsev6Kurliuk4n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S3Sideltsev9Kurliuk1n = 10Sideltsev took 9 of 10
S4Sideltsev4Kurliuk1n = 5Sideltsev took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSideltsevKurliukS − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.928.3+11.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSideltsevKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 434 vs 154 / 28759%53.7%256 / 434 vs 154 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevSideltsev 1.20/Kurliuk 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.6%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 26 · 07:30S. Sideltsev331111113V. Kurliuk194960
WJun 19 · 10:29S. Sideltsev4513912113V. Kurliuk3611111041
WJun 19 · 06:30S. Sideltsev371111153V. Kurliuk2483130
WJun 2 · 15:00S. Sideltsev331111113V. Kurliuk186750
WMay 28 · 07:00S. Sideltsev4211119113V. Kurliuk28471161
WApr 23 · 10:28S. Sideltsev4211911113V. Kurliuk29311871
WApr 23 · 06:30S. Sideltsev50981111113V. Kurliuk4211119472
WApr 8 · 06:00S. Sideltsev351111133V. Kurliuk2045110
WApr 2 · 08:00S. Sideltsev48117118113V. Kurliuk4481191152
WDec 11 · 11:30S. Sideltsev341111123V. Kurliuk2376100
S. Sideltsev10
LOct 9 · 06:00S. Sideltsev2.3851191172O. Torianyk1.53118114113WOct 8 · 17:54P. Shulhachyk2.1010880S. Sideltsev1.671211113WOct 8 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.531212111192S. Sideltsev2.38141452113WOct 8 · 15:00S. Sideltsev2.00611711143I. Dubinin1.73119117122WOct 8 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.751112113O. Torianyk1.4091060WOct 8 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.73117117113P. Shulhachyk2.0091191172LOct 5 · 17:05S. Sideltsev2.25111368112I. Dubinin1.577111111133LOct 5 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.6111941182P. Shulhachyk2.20311119113LOct 5 · 15:00V. Simchuk2.201111113S. Sideltsev1.619240WOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113
V. Kurliuk10
LOct 9 · 05:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.25101111113V. Kurliuk1.57126951WOct 7 · 10:45V. Kurliuk1.2011411113V. Khyzhnyak4.33811841WOct 7 · 09:00V. Kurliuk1.1012911113Y. Urezchenko6.501011891WOct 7 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7559100V. Kurliuk1.251111123WOct 7 · 07:00V. Matviichuk3.251111171V. Kurliuk1.3313114113WOct 7 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.006570V. Kurliuk1.731111113WOct 4 · 17:38V. Simchuk1.5361011111V. Kurliuk2.3811124133LOct 4 · 16:30V. Kurliuk2.75111659112V. Simchuk1.409141111133WOct 4 · 15:30V. Kurliuk1.2011114123A. Lysyi4.337511101WOct 4 · 14:00V. Kurliuk3.401111113I. Sorochan1.308940
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