TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Pohorilyi vs Sergii Sideltsev 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12141214115112911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 59.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 29–14 Sergii Sideltsev Sergii Sideltsev has won 14 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2459.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 5.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-14 in 43
Pohorilyi
Wrong
gap of 15 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1454 vs Sideltsev 1498
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 40% vs Sideltsev 60%
Sideltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 30% vs Sideltsev 50%
Sideltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +2 · Sideltsev +3
Sideltsev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pohorilyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sideltsev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.533 / Sideltsev 2.375
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pohorilyi)-5.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261640
Pohorilyi1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 130 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it91% 69 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it84% 101 of 120
Sideltsev2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi7wins
AwaySideltsev3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi83.3%5 of 6
AwaySideltsev50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi6Sideltsev4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S2Pohorilyi7Sideltsev3n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S3Pohorilyi7Sideltsev3n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S4Pohorilyi3Sideltsev3n = 6split evenly
S5Pohorilyi3Sideltsev2n = 5Pohorilyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiSideltsevP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.1+5.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 611 vs 254 / 43158.6%58.9%358 / 611 vs 254 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.53/Sideltsev 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.6%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi391111891S. Sideltsev4413911113
LSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi4911139792S. Sideltsev539111111113
WSep 24 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi42811111113S. Sideltsev4311113992
WSep 11 · 10:42M. Pohorilyi471011411113S. Sideltsev45121112912
WSep 11 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Sideltsev185670
WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi351113113S. Sideltsev2691160
WSep 2 · 06:00M. Pohorilyi50119811113S. Sideltsev3731111662
LAug 28 · 06:00M. Pohorilyi519111110102S. Sideltsev51119712123
WAug 6 · 17:34M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Sideltsev217770
WAug 6 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi351212113S. Sideltsev23101030
M. Pohorilyi10
WOct 8 · 17:23I. Dubinin2.635480M. Pohorilyi1.441111113WOct 8 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi2.50111713143O. Torianyk1.5071515121WOct 8 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111113I. Dubinin2.639940LOct 8 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.8389111152P. Shulhachyk1.83111184113LOct 1 · 16:30I. Dubinin2.63111189113M. Pohorilyi1.4497111192LOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113LOct 1 · 13:30M. Pohorilyi1.6771190P. Shulhachyk2.101113113LOct 1 · 12:00M. Pohorilyi2.7579130P. Kolesnik1.401111153LSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113LSep 30 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.4011681192I. Dubinin2.75211117113
S. Sideltsev10
WOct 8 · 17:54P. Shulhachyk2.1010880S. Sideltsev1.671211113WOct 8 · 15:00S. Sideltsev2.00611711143I. Dubinin1.73119117122WOct 8 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.751112113O. Torianyk1.4091060WOct 8 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.73117117113P. Shulhachyk2.0091191172LOct 5 · 17:05S. Sideltsev2.25111368112I. Dubinin1.577111111133LOct 5 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.6111941182P. Shulhachyk2.20311119113LOct 5 · 15:00V. Simchuk2.201111113S. Sideltsev1.619240WOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113WOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113WSep 30 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4411139792S. Sideltsev2.639111111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.