TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Ostrovskyi vs Dmytro Kunchurov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711115811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:51 and never touched: 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timePavlo Ostrovskyi to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavlo Ostrovskyi above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Pavlo Ostrovskyi at 75.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Ostrovskyi 0–1 Dmytro Kunchurov Pavlo Ostrovskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5175.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 4.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ostrovskyi 1050 vs Kunchurov 1008
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ostrovskyi 20% vs Kunchurov 40%
Kunchurov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ostrovskyi 30% vs Kunchurov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ostrovskyi -4 · Kunchurov -1
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Ostrovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOstrovskyi 1.25 / Kunchurov 3.75
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Ostrovskyi)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266118
Ostrovskyi1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kunchurov3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOstrovskyi0wins
AwayKunchurov1wins
Kunchurov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOstrovskyiKunchurovO − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.038.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOstrovskyiKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 21 vs 99 / 24333.3%40.7%7 / 21 vs 99 / 243Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OstrovskyiOstrovskyi 1.25/Kunchurov 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Ostrovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 9 · 06:00P. Ostrovskyi34871181D. Kunchurov3811115113
P. Ostrovskyi10
LOct 9 · 04:30P. Ostrovskyi1.1751380O. Efimov4.501115113LOct 6 · 17:10P. Ostrovskyi2.753790S. Skhabitskiy1.401111113LOct 6 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.44811511113P. Ostrovskyi2.6311411692LOct 6 · 14:10P. Ostrovskyi2.38116671S. Semenets1.5381111113WOct 6 · 13:10V. Stukalov2.2541220P. Ostrovskyi1.571114113LOct 6 · 11:40P. Ostrovskyi2.2571070S. Hovorunets1.571112113WOct 3 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.73891251P. Ostrovskyi2.00111110113LOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192LOct 3 · 09:05O. Stopin2.3861113113P. Ostrovskyi1.531151161WOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880WOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113LOct 8 · 10:35O. Efimov3.75671111113D. Kunchurov1.2511115992WOct 8 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.361151112122D. Kunchurov3.00511414143LOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191WOct 8 · 05:05O. Miklukha1.251181111102D. Kunchurov3.75611613123WOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 16:00D. Kunchurov2.75571281O. Miklukha1.40111110113LOct 7 · 14:30D. Kunchurov4.33981171O. Stopin1.2011117113
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