TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Alexander Tuzhylin vs Yevhen Masko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012114911116811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:20 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 68.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 145–76 Yevhen Masko Yevhen Masko has won 76 of their 221 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2068.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
145-76 in 221
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 69 in 221, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1821 vs Masko 1714
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Masko 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 90% vs Masko 50%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Masko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Tuzhylin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.444 / Masko 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Tuzhylin)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13266105
Tuzhylin1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 185 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it99% 119 of 120
Up 1–0, closes it91% 143 of 158
Masko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 35 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin5wins
AwayMasko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%3 of 3
AwayMasko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin3Masko7n = 10Masko took 7 of 10
S2Tuzhylin5Masko5n = 10split evenly
S3Tuzhylin6Masko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S4Tuzhylin4Masko2n = 6Tuzhylin took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinMaskoT − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.834.2+1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 641 vs 418 / 72876.3%57.4%489 / 641 vs 418 / 728Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.44/Masko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Masko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 9 · 23:25A. Tuzhylin49101191182Y. Masko44124116113
WSep 27 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin4011117113Y. Masko33771181
WSep 26 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin4181111113Y. Masko35118971
LSep 26 · 02:55A. Tuzhylin35981171Y. Masko3911116113
LSep 20 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin2512760Y. Masko361411113
WSep 18 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin44111111113Y. Masko29613731
LSep 13 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin249690Y. Masko331111113
WSep 12 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin331111113Y. Masko217860
LSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin31781151Y. Masko3811115113
A. Tuzhylin10
LOct 10 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.579111012102V. Melnik2.251181210123LOct 10 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1181191182E. Pismenniy6.00118111113WOct 10 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.131111143D. Neborak5.5068120LOct 10 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.4011111191Y. Masko2.7551313113WOct 10 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.5011116133R. Cherevko2.509711111WOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin1.111111153E. Pismenniy6.0069130LOct 10 · 02:25V. Melnik2.20118611113A. Tuzhylin1.6151111982WOct 10 · 00:25R. Cherevko2.63711981A. Tuzhylin1.4411611113WOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113LSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850
Y. Masko10
LOct 10 · 20:25D. Neborak2.751112143Y. Masko1.40610120LOct 10 · 18:55Y. Masko1.73118111362R. Cherevko2.001311611113LOct 10 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.3851191173Y. Masko1.53115118112WOct 10 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.4011111191Y. Masko2.7551313113WOct 10 · 13:55V. Melnik1.5791113972Y. Masko2.251141111113WOct 10 · 03:55D. Neborak2.63211132112Y. Masko1.441181111133WOct 10 · 02:55E. Pismenniy2.7588110Y. Masko1.401111133WOct 10 · 01:25V. Melnik1.57143971Y. Masko2.25121111113WOct 9 · 21:25R. Cherevko2.209811131Y. Masko1.6111119153LOct 4 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.50149611113Y. Masko1.50121111892
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