TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Yevhen Masko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
21111813112111113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:52 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeYevhen Masko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 93 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Yevhen Masko at 67.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 11–14 Yevhen Masko Dmytro Neborak has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:5267.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Masko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Masko
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1639 vs Masko 1734
Masko
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Masko 80%
Masko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Masko 70%
Masko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Masko +4
Masko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Masko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.625 / Masko 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Masko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265993
Neborak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 119
Masko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 140 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it99% 86 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it89% 114 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak5wins
AwayMasko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak80%4 of 5
AwayMasko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Masko5n = 10split evenly
S2Neborak4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S3Neborak4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S4Neborak2Masko4n = 6Masko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakMaskoN − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.935.1−3.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 853 vs 420 / 73036.2%57.5%309 / 853 vs 420 / 730Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaskoNeborak 2.63/Masko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Masko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Masko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak331111113Y. Masko174670
LAug 23 · 14:55D. Neborak28117281Y. Masko4181111113
WAug 22 · 16:25D. Neborak4211119113Y. Masko35991161
LJun 13 · 06:50D. Neborak2711880Y. Masko351311113
WJun 12 · 15:20D. Neborak4316511113Y. Masko401411961
LApr 25 · 06:20D. Neborak29561171Y. Masko4211119113
LApr 24 · 17:20D. Neborak145360Y. Masko331111113
WJul 25 · 06:20D. Neborak43511115113Y. Masko3711391132
LJul 24 · 16:50D. Neborak2812970Y. Masko361411113
D. Neborak10
WOct 10 · 20:25D. Neborak2.751112143Y. Masko1.40610120LOct 10 · 18:25V. Melnik1.366111111113D. Neborak3.0011132742LOct 10 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.131111143D. Neborak5.5068120WOct 10 · 15:25D. Neborak2.75411711113R. Cherevko1.4011511892LOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko1.5711113123D. Neborak2.254411101WOct 10 · 00:55D. Neborak1.3611611113E. Pismenniy3.00711461LOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik1.401081111113D. Neborak2.7512117672LOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113WOct 7 · 12:50O. Shkurupii1.678111191D. Neborak2.1011713113
Y. Masko10
LOct 10 · 20:25D. Neborak2.751112143Y. Masko1.40610120LOct 10 · 18:55Y. Masko1.73118111362R. Cherevko2.001311611113LOct 10 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.3851191173Y. Masko1.53115118112WOct 10 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.4011111191Y. Masko2.7551313113WOct 10 · 13:55V. Melnik1.5791113972Y. Masko2.251141111113WOct 10 · 02:55E. Pismenniy2.7588110Y. Masko1.401111133WOct 10 · 01:25V. Melnik1.57143971Y. Masko2.25121111113WOct 9 · 23:25A. Tuzhylin1.44101191182Y. Masko2.63124116113WOct 9 · 21:25R. Cherevko2.209811131Y. Masko1.6111119153LOct 4 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.50149611113Y. Masko1.50121111892
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