TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Mejzlik vs Karel Polak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115611511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Mejzlik to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jakub Mejzlik @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingJakub Mejzlik above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jakub Mejzlik at 60.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mejzlik 6–7 Karel Polak Jakub Mejzlik has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:2960.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mejzlik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mejzlik 1484 vs Polak 1379
Mejzlik
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mejzlik 100% vs Polak 60%
Mejzlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mejzlik 90% vs Polak 50%
Mejzlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mejzlik +7 · Polak +2
Mejzlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Mejzlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMejzlik 1.615 / Polak 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Mejzlik)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261343
Mejzlik1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 52 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Polak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 38 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back21% 4 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMejzlik4wins
AwayPolak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMejzlik57.1%4 of 7
AwayPolak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mejzlik7Polak3n = 10Mejzlik took 7 of 10
S2Mejzlik5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S3Mejzlik3Polak7n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S4Mejzlik3Polak5n = 8Polak took 5 of 8
S5Mejzlik1Polak2n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMejzlikPolakM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.2−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMejzlikPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 285 vs 170 / 34550.2%49.3%143 / 285 vs 170 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MejzlikMejzlik 1.61/Polak 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Mejzlik · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Mejzlik @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 15:30J. Mejzlik341111123K. Polak2165100
LSep 28 · 15:00J. Mejzlik188550K. Polak331111113
WAug 3 · 09:08J. Mejzlik3911116113K. Polak32861171
WAug 3 · 06:30J. Mejzlik50157512113K. Polak491311111042
WJul 6 · 08:00J. Mejzlik45111112113K. Polak30841441
LApr 21 · 09:09J. Mejzlik341131281K. Polak4371114113
LApr 21 · 05:30J. Mejzlik49111271092K. Polak495101112113
LApr 13 · 09:08J. Mejzlik28411851K. Polak4111811113
LApr 13 · 07:00J. Mejzlik29671151K. Polak3611113113
LJan 20 · 14:15J. Mejzlik4311811582K. Polak48611911113
J. Mejzlik10
WOct 8 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.8311117123L. Tuma1.838611101WSep 30 · 17:09O. Plyska2.008812141J. Mejzlik1.73111110163WSep 30 · 15:30K. Polak1.7365100J. Mejzlik2.001111123WSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111WSep 30 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.801110117113O. Plyska1.9141281152WSep 28 · 16:58J. Mejzlik1.571110711113P. Fiser2.2521211652WSep 28 · 16:00P. Fiser1.735990J. Mejzlik2.001111113LSep 28 · 15:00K. Polak1.911111113J. Mejzlik1.808550WSep 28 · 13:30J. Pina1.67311561J. Mejzlik2.1011911113WSep 27 · 12:18J. Mejzlik2.00111197123K. Jirousek1.73771111102
K. Polak10
WOct 8 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.678560K. Polak2.101111113WSep 30 · 16:39M. Vorel1.8011911852K. Polak1.91411511113LSep 30 · 15:30K. Polak1.7365100J. Mejzlik2.001111123LSep 30 · 14:30K. Polak2.3897100O. Plyska1.531111123WSep 30 · 13:30K. Polak2.20111188113M. Vorel1.6168111132WSep 29 · 16:59K. Polak2.6313139143P. Abraham1.44111111121LSep 29 · 16:00P. Abraham1.731111113K. Polak2.007570LSep 29 · 15:00L. Tuma1.808111111113K. Polak1.9111681362LSep 29 · 13:30K. Farsky1.36111311113K. Polak3.001311791WSep 28 · 15:00K. Polak1.911111113J. Mejzlik1.808550
Upcoming Matches
J. Mejzlik
Nothing scheduled
K. Polak
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