TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Nesnera vs Radim Urbaniec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412114911113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched: 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeJiri Nesnera to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Nesnera above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 75 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Jiri Nesnera at 60.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Nesnera 0–1 Radim Urbaniec Jiri Nesnera has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Urbaniec beat Nesnera 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1360.6%Our read45.5%to break even at 2.20
clears by 15.1pp45.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.20 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Urbaniec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nesnera 1791 vs Urbaniec 1768
Nesnera
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nesnera 60% vs Urbaniec 40%
Nesnera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nesnera 40% vs Urbaniec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nesnera +2 · Urbaniec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Nesnera) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNesnera 2.20 / Urbaniec 1.615
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Nesnera)+15.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13260569
Nesnera2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 9 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Urbaniec1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 184 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it90% 94 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it79% 132 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNesnera0wins
AwayUrbaniec1wins
Urbaniec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNesneraUrbaniecN − UBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match39.046.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNesneraUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 158 vs 688 / 134653.8%51.1%85 / 158 vs 688 / 1346Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NesneraNesnera 2.20/Urbaniec 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.6%
Nesnera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nesnera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 7 · 14:00J. Nesnera391161391R. Urbaniec46131111113
J. Nesnera10
WOct 7 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.57121110113F. Wolf2.251071261WOct 7 · 15:30M. Jezek2.508550J. Nesnera1.501111113LOct 7 · 14:00J. Nesnera1.611161391R. Urbaniec2.20131111113LSep 24 · 17:30J. Nesnera1.4511911562M. Jezek2.60911711113WSep 24 · 16:00J. Kanera2.104930J. Nesnera1.671111113LSep 24 · 15:00M. Jezek2.756111112113J. Nesnera1.40111381062WSep 24 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.571161110113J. Ruzicka2.2561171292LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113
R. Urbaniec10
WOct 7 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.20111311113M. Jezek1.611311771LOct 7 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.385430F. Wolf1.531111113WOct 7 · 14:00J. Nesnera1.611161391R. Urbaniec2.20131111113LOct 6 · 17:09D. Ondryas3.25771111113R. Urbaniec1.3311114882LOct 6 · 16:30M. Grundel1.33118119113R. Urbaniec3.2551181182LOct 6 · 15:30R. Urbaniec1.91814461M. Navedla1.80111211113LOct 6 · 14:30D. Ondryas1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.912780LOct 4 · 17:30M. Grundel1.171111113R. Urbaniec4.506990WOct 4 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.001111113F. Nadymacek1.739450WOct 4 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.402111111123M. Grundel1.30114136102
Upcoming Matches
J. Nesnera
Nothing scheduled
R. Urbaniec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.