TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Sylwester Wloszek vs Dawid Stapor 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched: 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
118119118––––
H2H Sylwester Wloszek 30–53 Dawid Stapor Sylwester Wloszek has won 30 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5559.1%Our read60.2%to break even at 1.66
short by 1.1pp60.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.66 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-53 in 83
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 23 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wloszek 1534 vs Stapor 1680
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wloszek 60% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wloszek 50% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wloszek -1 · Stapor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wloszek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWloszek 2.10 / Stapor 1.66
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Stapor)-1.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258725
Wloszek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 122 of 328
Down 0–1, comes back16% 30 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 123
Stapor1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 164 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it99% 80 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it87% 123 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWloszek4wins
AwayStapor6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWloszek57.1%4 of 7
AwayStapor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wloszek7Stapor3n = 10Wloszek took 7 of 10
S2Wloszek4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Wloszek5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Wloszek3Stapor5n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWloszekStaporW − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.0−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWloszekStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 1120 vs 502 / 92643.9%54.2%492 / 1120 vs 502 / 926Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporWloszek 2.10/Stapor 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.1%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wloszek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 08:00S. Wloszek381114133D. Stapor32912110
LSep 29 · 08:30S. Wloszek51111111992D. Stapor45113911113
LSep 22 · 10:00S. Wloszek3911107111D. Stapor4151211133
LSep 21 · 11:00S. Wloszek341081151D. Stapor4112117113
WSep 19 · 13:05S. Wloszek43111011113D. Stapor29212781
LSep 9 · 07:00S. Wloszek31611951D. Stapor4111811113
LSep 8 · 05:00S. Wloszek2251160D. Stapor351113113
WSep 6 · 17:05S. Wloszek3912115113D. Stapor361081171
LSep 5 · 13:45S. Wloszek43111161052D. Stapor50881112113
WSep 5 · 11:35S. Wloszek4211713113D. Stapor409111191
S. Wloszek10
LOct 7 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.55111110113S. Wloszek2.30991291WOct 7 · 08:00M. Burkacki2.108750S. Wloszek1.651111113WOct 7 · 07:00S. Wloszek2.1011115113P. Gola1.60941191LOct 7 · 06:00B. Molka1.8511119123S. Wloszek1.854711101WOct 5 · 12:40S. Wloszek1.801181311113S. Radlo1.9131115992WOct 5 · 12:00S. Wloszek1.4641117143J. Chojnacki2.5511915121LOct 5 · 10:00P. Gola1.541111113S. Wloszek2.258980WOct 5 · 08:00D. Stapor1.61912110S. Wloszek2.201114133LOct 5 · 07:00M. Galus1.4091311113S. Wloszek2.521111991LOct 5 · 06:00S. Wloszek2.101313511142S. Radlo1.661115116163
D. Stapor10
WOct 7 · 10:30D. Stapor1.531111117113P. Gola2.3513491182LOct 7 · 08:30B. Molka2.301411113D. Stapor1.5512890WOct 7 · 06:30M. Burkacki2.277880D. Stapor1.571111113LOct 7 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.951211113D. Stapor1.7410560WOct 5 · 13:40M. Galus2.107970D. Stapor1.651111113WOct 5 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4671111113P. Gola2.50119881LOct 5 · 09:30D. Stapor2.0541371192M. Galus1.701111116113LOct 5 · 08:00D. Stapor1.61912110S. Wloszek2.201114133WOct 5 · 06:30D. Stapor1.281111113J. Chojnacki3.409860WOct 5 · 05:00D. Stapor1.68111611113S. Radlo2.05918761
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