TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Kondratenko vs Serhii Hovorunets 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111311116911911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 54.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 13–8 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0054.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1295 vs Hovorunets 1319
Hovorunets
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 80% vs Hovorunets 60%
Kondratenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 90% vs Hovorunets 70%
Kondratenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko -1 · Hovorunets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kondratenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.727 / Hovorunets 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kondratenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13257847
Kondratenko1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it80% 62 of 78
Hovorunets2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 36 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko5wins
AwayHovorunets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko75%3 of 4
AwayHovorunets66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko4Hovorunets6n = 10Hovorunets took 6 of 10
S2Kondratenko5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S3Kondratenko6Hovorunets4n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S4Kondratenko5Hovorunets3n = 8Kondratenko took 5 of 8
S5Kondratenko1Hovorunets2n = 3Hovorunets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoHovorunetsK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.8+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 545 vs 233 / 47845.3%48.7%247 / 545 vs 233 / 478Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.73/Hovorunets 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hovorunets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 07:05V. Kondratenko4011711113S. Hovorunets30411691
LSep 29 · 15:40V. Kondratenko4211761172S. Hovorunets45711115113
LSep 16 · 09:20V. Kondratenko347101161S. Hovorunets4011126113
LAug 19 · 06:30V. Kondratenko336411121S. Hovorunets4111115143
WAug 6 · 08:00V. Kondratenko47911311133S. Hovorunets47118116112
LJul 24 · 07:30V. Kondratenko3371790S. Hovorunets411119113
WJul 9 · 06:05V. Kondratenko3911116113S. Hovorunets34961181
WJun 11 · 12:05V. Kondratenko3961111113S. Hovorunets34116981
LJun 8 · 08:30V. Kondratenko3951113462S. Hovorunets491151111113
WJun 7 · 12:40V. Kondratenko331111113S. Hovorunets176650
V. Kondratenko10
LOct 7 · 07:35V. Kondratenko1.6111711572V. Stukalov2.20811711113WOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 4 · 16:15M. Khalenko1.5712115862V. Kondratenko2.251021111113WOct 4 · 15:10K. Klymenko1.5311111171V. Kondratenko2.3813813113WOct 4 · 13:40V. Kondratenko1.67931111113V. Stukalov2.1011117462WOct 4 · 12:10V. Kondratenko1.361111133V. Varchenko3.0079110WOct 4 · 10:40V. Kondratenko2.501491193M. Khalenko1.501211851WSep 30 · 12:05V. Kondratenko1.6111112113S. Semenets2.20851161WSep 30 · 10:05O. Miklukha3.25711681V. Kondratenko1.3311711113WSep 30 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.201171011V. Kondratenko1.6161112113
S. Hovorunets10
LOct 7 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.5381111133S. Hovorunets2.381166111LOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 15:40V. Stukalov2.75113111482S. Hovorunets1.40211916113WOct 6 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.57111171192S. Hovorunets2.25513113113WOct 6 · 12:40S. Hovorunets3.2511811113S. Skhabitskiy1.33411881WOct 6 · 11:40P. Ostrovskyi2.2571070S. Hovorunets1.571112113WSep 30 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.0077111132S. Hovorunets1.36111198113WSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets1.737111091S. Hovorunets2.0011512113WSep 30 · 09:05O. Miklukha3.25641171S. Hovorunets1.3311116113LSep 30 · 07:05V. Kondratenko1.8311711113S. Hovorunets1.83411691
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