TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Mariusz Adamus 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511911––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:50 and never touched: 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
911511911––––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 48–55 Mariusz Adamus Jakub Kaczmarek has won 48 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5064.7%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
clears by 2.2pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-55 in 103
Adamus
Correct
gap of 7 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1279 vs Adamus 1393
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Adamus 100%
Adamus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Adamus 90%
Adamus
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +1 · Adamus +8
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.15 / Adamus 1.60
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Adamus)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13257596
Kaczmarek2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 178 of 503
Down 0–1, comes back18% 54 of 309
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Adamus1.60
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 204 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it88% 73 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it70% 138 of 196
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdamus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek6Adamus4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kaczmarek6Adamus4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S3Kaczmarek4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek4Adamus5n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S5Kaczmarek3Adamus1n = 4Kaczmarek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekAdamusK − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.540.8+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime511 / 1358 vs 792 / 162537.6%48.7%511 / 1358 vs 792 / 1625Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusKaczmarek 2.15/Adamus 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 18:45J. Kaczmarek3911116113M. Adamus32761181
WSep 18 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek521181110123M. Adamus46511812102
WSep 16 · 19:35J. Kaczmarek4111811113M. Adamus36811891
WSep 9 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek45511711113M. Adamus4511811692
LSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek34811961M. Adamus3911611113
LSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek31116681M. Adamus4071111113
LAug 28 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek4211111191M. Adamus4613913113
WAug 14 · 11:55J. Kaczmarek49111179113M. Adamus3855111162
WAug 14 · 05:55J. Kaczmarek361411113M. Adamus2712780
LAug 13 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek46431118102M. Adamus591111916123
J. Kaczmarek10
WOct 7 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.50116119123R. Idaczyk1.45611911102LOct 7 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.70121150J. Nowak2.001413113LOct 6 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.5511101011102M. Cesarz2.32912123123WOct 6 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.03417115143A. Ruszkiewicz1.711115811122LOct 6 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.00111112932O. Vincenec1.70771411113LOct 6 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.858980R. Skotniczny1.351111113LOct 6 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.40781151R. Idaczyk1.4711118113LOct 5 · 17:05J. Pelka1.821211113J. Kaczmarek1.8810970WOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121WOct 5 · 14:45G. Wichowski2.751168121J. Kaczmarek1.4091111143
M. Adamus10
WOct 7 · 05:10M. Adamus1.961111113P. Adamus1.767870WOct 7 · 04:00M. Adamus1.68913116113A. Burkacki2.05111191172WOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133WOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082WOct 6 · 22:00M. Adamus1.66101111113G. Jurowicz1.97126581WOct 5 · 02:00G. Sawicki2.009121091M. Adamus1.73111012113LOct 5 · 01:10M. Guzik1.46111266113M. Adamus2.50410111172WOct 5 · 00:25M. Adamus1.80311169113P. Ostachowski1.86119141152
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