TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Borek Moravec vs Lukas Slavik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611111811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Lukas Slavik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Borek Moravec at 56.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 1–0 Lukas Slavik Lukas Slavik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Moravec beat Slavik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:0956.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1796 vs Slavik 1637
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Slavik 40%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 80% vs Slavik 50%
Moravec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +3 · Slavik +2
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.727 / Slavik 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Moravec)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13255261
Moravec1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it100% 56 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 87 of 98
Slavik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 40 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoravec1wins
AwaySlavik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMoravec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMoravecSlavikM − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.041.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecSlavikBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 482 vs 133 / 25558.7%52.2%283 / 482 vs 133 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.73/Slavik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 6 · 13:45B. Moravec51981211113L. Slavik41111110632
B. Moravec10
WOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4491213113J. Krupnik2.6311101111WOct 6 · 14:45B. Moravec1.537101111123D. Skulina2.38111279102WOct 6 · 13:45B. Moravec1.67981211113L. Slavik2.10111110632LOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191LOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113WOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 17:05B. Moravec1.111111113K. Kleprlik6.005260WOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162WOct 1 · 14:40B. Moravec1.361111113D. Velky Jr3.009570
L. Slavik10
WOct 6 · 16:15D. Skulina1.614960L. Slavik2.201111113WOct 6 · 15:15L. Slavik2.001111113J. Krupnik1.735780LOct 6 · 13:45B. Moravec1.67981211113L. Slavik2.10111110632LOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113LOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880WOct 5 · 07:15T. Krenek1.91411951L. Slavik1.8011411113WOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672LOct 2 · 20:53K. Kleprlik2.006151111113L. Slavik1.7311176592WOct 2 · 19:45L. Slavik1.9111116113D. Stusek1.80991191LOct 2 · 18:45L. Slavik1.6741011101K. Kleprlik2.1011129123
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