TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Adamczyk vs Adrian Walek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117118911117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:27 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeAdrian Walek to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Adamczyk above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Adrian Walek at 55.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Adamczyk 5–8 Adrian Walek Vladimir Adamczyk has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2755.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Walek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Walek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamczyk 1609 vs Walek 1579
Adamczyk
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamczyk 80% vs Walek 40%
Adamczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamczyk 60% vs Walek 30%
Adamczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamczyk -1 · Walek -3
Walek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Walek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamczyk 2.20 / Walek 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Walek)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254903
Adamczyk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 30 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Walek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 48 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamczyk3wins
AwayWalek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWalek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamczyk50%2 of 4
AwayWalek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamczyk4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S2Adamczyk2Walek8n = 10Walek took 8 of 10
S3Adamczyk4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S4Adamczyk4Walek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamczykWalekA − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.4−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamczykWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 237 vs 229 / 46254.4%49.6%129 / 237 vs 229 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WalekAdamczyk 2.20/Walek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 14:30V. Adamczyk37981191A. Walek4011117113
LAug 24 · 07:00V. Adamczyk174850A. Walek331111113
WAug 13 · 11:30V. Adamczyk4281112113A. Walek311151051
LJul 16 · 12:00V. Adamczyk26113481A. Walek4181111113
WJul 13 · 10:30V. Adamczyk4111118113A. Walek32841191
LJul 13 · 06:00V. Adamczyk4287111152A. Walek50111189113
LJul 8 · 21:30V. Adamczyk30117841A. Walek4071111113
WJul 8 · 19:00V. Adamczyk551191211123A. Walek45511145102
LJun 30 · 21:00V. Adamczyk388101191A. Walek3811124113
LJun 30 · 20:00V. Adamczyk2021080A. Walek341112113
V. Adamczyk10
LOct 7 · 14:30J. Stoch1.531111910113V. Adamczyk2.3869111272WOct 6 · 09:30V. Adamczyk1.90138411113R. Skacelik1.80111111782WOct 6 · 08:30V. Adamczyk1.675111110113A. Rinka2.1011491292WOct 6 · 07:00V. Adamczyk1.571111113S. Byrtus2.258560WOct 6 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.671156111V. Adamczyk2.1081111133WOct 1 · 13:00V. Adamczyk1.67671111113D. Heczko2.1011119552WOct 1 · 12:30L. Martinak1.408990V. Adamczyk2.751111113LOct 1 · 11:30V. Adamczyk2.2510970T. Petrek1.571211113LOct 1 · 10:30D. Heczko2.20981711113V. Adamczyk1.61111115892LSep 30 · 13:30V. Adamczyk2.20671181R. Skacelik1.6111118113
A. Walek10
LOct 7 · 14:00A. Walek1.80912961J. Schwan1.91111011113LSep 29 · 17:30D. Langer1.6711711113A. Walek2.10711461LSep 29 · 16:00D. Langer1.739111313113A. Walek2.00117111572WSep 29 · 15:00J. Schwan1.9198111182A. Walek1.80111196113WSep 29 · 14:30A. Walek1.5711117113V. Adamczyk2.25981191LSep 28 · 17:00A. Walek2.1091180D. Heczko1.671113113WSep 28 · 16:00A. Walek2.00111211173D. Langer1.738149151LSep 28 · 15:30T. Petrek1.73119118113A. Walek2.0081161182LSep 28 · 14:00A. Walek1.9181161182D. Heczko1.80112117113LSep 26 · 21:30D. Langer1.80116911113A. Walek1.9171111452
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