TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Danko vs Marcel Heczko 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911111312101181113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timePetr Danko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Danko above · Marcel Heczko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 109 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Petr Danko at 64.5%
109 points played in total.
H2H Petr Danko 15–6 Marcel Heczko Marcel Heczko has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Danko beat Heczko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2964.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
clears by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Danko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Danko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danko 1605 vs Heczko 1519
Danko
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danko 80% vs Heczko 40%
Danko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danko 50% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danko +4 · Heczko -2
Danko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Danko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanko 1.571 / Heczko 2.25
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Danko)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13253441
Danko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite63% won 26 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Heczko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 61 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanko7wins
AwayHeczko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDanko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanko80%4 of 5
AwayHeczko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danko5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S2Danko5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Danko7Heczko3n = 10Danko took 7 of 10
S4Danko2Heczko7n = 9Heczko took 7 of 9
S5Danko5Heczko0n = 5Danko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDankoHeczkoD − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.940.3+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDankoHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 228 vs 289 / 59850.9%48.3%116 / 228 vs 289 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DankoDanko 1.57/Heczko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Danko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko42511411113M. Heczko4311711862
WSep 23 · 12:59P. Danko55811139143M. Heczko531181111122
LSep 23 · 11:00P. Danko33119671M. Heczko4071111113
WSep 8 · 07:30P. Danko48119116113M. Heczko4161171162
WSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko50118119113M. Heczko4891181192
WSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko351111133M. Heczko2669110
WJul 16 · 06:30P. Danko481110115113M. Heczko3981261122
LJun 16 · 14:30P. Danko32711951M. Heczko4011711113
WMay 19 · 12:30P. Danko4181111113M. Heczko32119391
LApr 9 · 09:00P. Danko354111191M. Heczko4111136113
P. Danko10
WOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko1.61511411113M. Heczko2.2011711862WOct 6 · 07:00P. Danko1.8391111113V. Cerny1.83116891WOct 6 · 06:00J. Levicky2.25111197102P. Danko1.57481111123WSep 23 · 12:59M. Heczko2.201181111122P. Danko1.61811139143LSep 23 · 12:30P. Danko1.61314661V. Adamczyk2.20111211113LSep 23 · 11:00P. Danko1.53119671M. Heczko2.3871111113LSep 23 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.6711119113P. Danko2.10681191LSep 22 · 09:30A. Rinka1.851113113P. Danko1.8591180WSep 22 · 08:00S. Byrtus1.3311941282P. Danko3.253111110113LSep 22 · 07:00A. Rinka2.00116811113P. Danko1.7391111852
M. Heczko10
LOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko1.61511411113M. Heczko2.2011711862LOct 6 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91771311102J. Levicky1.801111115123WOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113WOct 5 · 09:07O. Hradil1.83103111162M. Heczko1.83121155113LOct 5 · 08:30S. Byrtus1.831311116113M. Heczko1.8315681182LOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113LOct 5 · 06:30O. Hradil1.8311411113M. Heczko1.83711781LSep 28 · 17:30J. Stoch1.6701111113M. Heczko2.10114951LSep 23 · 12:59M. Heczko2.201181111122P. Danko1.61811139143WSep 23 · 11:00P. Danko1.53119671M. Heczko2.3871111113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Heczko
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