TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Patrik Hanel vs Roman Guliak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119119112––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timePatrik Hanel to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Hanel above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 69 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Patrik Hanel at 72.8%
69 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Hanel 8–4 Roman Guliak Roman Guliak has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hanel beat Guliak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2872.8%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.6pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Hanel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Hanel
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanel 1487 vs Guliak 1430
Hanel
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanel 60% vs Guliak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanel 40% vs Guliak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanel -1 · Guliak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Hanel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanel 1.363 / Guliak 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Hanel)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13251416
Hanel1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 30 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Guliak3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 71 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanel7wins
AwayGuliak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHanel leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanel83.3%5 of 6
AwayGuliak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanel6Guliak4n = 10Hanel took 6 of 10
S2Hanel8Guliak2n = 10Hanel took 8 of 10
S3Hanel8Guliak2n = 10Hanel took 8 of 10
S4Hanel3Guliak3n = 6split evenly
S5Hanel1Guliak2n = 3Guliak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanelGuliakH − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.032.1+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanelGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 131 vs 337 / 67949.6%49.6%65 / 131 vs 337 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanelHanel 1.36/Guliak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Hanel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hanel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel4291111113R. Guliak30116941
WSep 7 · 16:58P. Hanel331111113R. Guliak226880
WSep 7 · 15:00P. Hanel341211113R. Guliak2310670
LAug 22 · 18:00P. Hanel42101111732R. Guliak40124211113
LAug 10 · 20:30P. Hanel4511871182R. Guliak46611117113
WJun 12 · 20:00P. Hanel47911115113R. Guliak3411531142
WJun 8 · 20:00P. Hanel331111113R. Guliak195860
LJun 4 · 21:30P. Hanel3910118101R. Guliak4412911123
WJun 4 · 18:00P. Hanel361111143R. Guliak2668120
WJun 2 · 19:00P. Hanel3912511113R. Guliak371011881
P. Hanel10
LOct 5 · 20:30I. Taichman1.7811118113P. Hanel1.92671181WOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:30F. Zurek2.2574100P. Hanel1.571111123LOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700WOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:00P. Hanel1.8398150P. Bajtek1.831111173LOct 3 · 10:00P. Osvald1.7371111113P. Hanel2.00116861LSep 29 · 21:00P. Hanel2.0066111192I. Taichman1.73111162113WSep 29 · 20:00P. Hanel1.831111123M. Kowolowski1.8394100LSep 29 · 19:30T. Milota1.919111111113P. Hanel1.8011813422
R. Guliak10
LOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580WOct 6 · 20:00M. Kowolowski1.6118771162R. Guliak2.201611118113WOct 6 · 19:00I. Taichman2.108860R. Guliak1.671111113LOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113WOct 5 · 20:00R. Guliak2.38581211113F. Zurek1.53111110992LOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:00R. Guliak1.831111113I. Taichman1.836480LOct 3 · 17:13R. Guliak1.8381161222V. Bosak1.831141110113WOct 3 · 16:30R. Guliak3.0011115183V. Bosak1.367711161LOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123
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