TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Baday vs Artem Kasyanov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117211114116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched: 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 63 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Maksym Baday at 73.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 126–26 Artem Kasyanov Artem Kasyanov has won 26 of their 152 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5673.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.3pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
126-26 in 152
Baday
Correct
gap of 100 in 152, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1862 vs Kasyanov 1798
Baday
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 60% vs Kasyanov 40%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 60% vs Kasyanov 40%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +1 · Kasyanov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Baday) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.363 / Kasyanov 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Baday)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13251196
Baday1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 221 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it97% 113 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it87% 163 of 187
Kasyanov3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 37 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday8wins
AwayKasyanov2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday100%7 of 7
AwayKasyanov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday7Kasyanov3n = 10Baday took 7 of 10
S2Baday5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Baday7Kasyanov3n = 10Baday took 7 of 10
S4Baday3Kasyanov6n = 9Kasyanov took 6 of 9
S5Baday5Kasyanov1n = 6Baday took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayKasyanovB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.140.0+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 730 vs 376 / 67074.4%56.1%543 / 730 vs 376 / 670Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.36/Kasyanov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday4211911113A. Kasyanov30811741
WSep 29 · 17:29M. Baday341112113A. Kasyanov1931060
WSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday4111811113A. Kasyanov31211991
WSep 18 · 13:30M. Baday461131011113A. Kasyanov4051112752
WSep 15 · 16:00M. Baday471141110113A. Kasyanov5091191292
WSep 15 · 13:30M. Baday521111811113A. Kasyanov4185111342
LSep 8 · 17:34M. Baday42121111262A. Kasyanov52148811113
WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday6111131115113A. Kasyanov5161571762
LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday26611541A. Kasyanov4111811113
WAug 28 · 17:30M. Baday50911117123A. Kasyanov45115811102
M. Baday10
WOct 6 · 14:00M. Baday1.2011112113A. Lushchyk4.33961181WOct 2 · 17:34R. Ivanov1.738611101M. Baday2.0011119123LOct 2 · 16:30M. Baday1.918111081R. Ivanov1.8011412113WOct 2 · 15:30M. Baday1.201611113A. Lushchyk4.3314480LOct 2 · 14:00M. Baday1.3631161142S. Chuhai3.00117117113WOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113WSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111LSep 29 · 14:00M. Baday1.73111191072I. Fedoryshyn2.00671112113
A. Kasyanov10
WOct 6 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.8091111882A. Kasyanov1.91116811113LOct 6 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.251311118113A. Kasyanov1.57117131192WOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.104580A. Kasyanov1.671111113LOct 2 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.38611311113A. Kasyanov1.5311811592LOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WOct 2 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.67611661A. Kasyanov2.1011611113LSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113LSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.001111113I. Fedoryshyn1.739920WSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680
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