TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ales Brandtl Snr vs Michal Makara 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811119911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Snr above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Michal Makara at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Snr 3–4 Michal Makara Ales Brandtl Snr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Makara
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1662 vs Makara 1630
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 100% vs Makara 20%
Snr
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 70% vs Makara 40%
Snr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +6 · Makara -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Makara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.00 / Makara 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Makara)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251177
Snr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Makara1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayMakara4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMakara leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr60%3 of 5
AwayMakaran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr5Makara2n = 7Snr took 5 of 7
S2Snr3Makara4n = 7Makara took 4 of 7
S3Snr5Makara2n = 7Snr took 5 of 7
S4Snr3Makara2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5Snr0Makara3n = 3Makara took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSnrMakaraS − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match40.637.0+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 51 vs 506 / 105739.2%47.9%20 / 51 vs 506 / 1057Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraSnr 2.00/Makara 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 6 · 06:15A. Snr35781191M. Makara4211119113
WOct 4 · 05:45A. Snr4211119113M. Makara28691121
LSep 12 · 09:15A. Snr4511611982M. Makara44611511113
LSep 11 · 16:24A. Snr4368111172M. Makara51111199113
WSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr331111113M. Makara185850
WJun 9 · 20:18A. Snr351111133M. Makara2449110
LJun 9 · 18:45A. Snr51111561182M. Makara52717116113
A. Snr10
LOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101WOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071WOct 6 · 05:15A. Snr1.911191110113T. Liska1.8011141252WOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661WOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113WSep 18 · 20:13L. Dobias1.4491190A. Snr2.631113113LSep 18 · 19:15A. Snr2.00671181J. Krames Sr1.7311118113LSep 18 · 18:15A. Snr2.6369121142L. Dobias1.441111109113
M. Makara10
LOct 6 · 07:45M. Makara1.739780T. Liska2.001111113LOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 12:13M. Makara2.0091080L. Rulc1.731112113LOct 5 · 11:45M. Makara1.83931171T. Liska1.8311116113LOct 5 · 10:15O. Kaderabek1.6741111113M. Makara2.10115781WOct 5 · 09:45L. Rulc1.9111221182M. Makara1.80311117113WOct 4 · 16:44M. Makara2.751171110113D. Gasparovic1.4071191282WOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471LOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113
Upcoming Matches
A. Snr
Nothing scheduled
M. Makara
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