TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Andrii Kurtenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 49–37 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kurtenko has won 37 of their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-37 in 86
Osadchyi
Wrong
gap of 12 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1439 vs Kurtenko 1472
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kurtenko 60%
Kurtenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Kurtenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Kurtenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.80 / Kurtenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Osadchyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250610
Osadchyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 113 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 81 of 104
Kurtenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi5wins
AwayKurtenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi60%3 of 5
AwayKurtenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Osadchyi3Kurtenko7n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S3Osadchyi6Kurtenko4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S4Osadchyi2Kurtenko4n = 6Kurtenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoO − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.4−0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 867 vs 354 / 67651.7%52.4%448 / 867 vs 354 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.80/Kurtenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi204880A. Kurtenko331111113
LOct 4 · 07:50O. Osadchyi32119751A. Kurtenko4071111113
LSep 27 · 09:20O. Osadchyi397111381A. Kurtenko46111311113
WSep 26 · 16:30O. Osadchyi559131111113A. Kurtenko4411157472
LSep 22 · 08:05O. Osadchyi218670A. Kurtenko331111113
WSep 21 · 08:50O. Osadchyi551161611113A. Kurtenko56911141392
WSep 20 · 10:50O. Osadchyi331111113A. Kurtenko217770
WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi341112113A. Kurtenko2561090
LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi28114671A. Kurtenko3961111113
WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi4181111113A. Kurtenko27114571
O. Osadchyi10
WOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441WOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113LOct 4 · 09:50S. Solomko1.5711111113O. Osadchyi2.25491131LOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751WOct 4 · 05:50E. Populovskyi3.5010980O. Osadchyi1.281211113WOct 3 · 18:00O. Osadchyi3.7561111103A. Martyniuk1.25118971LOct 3 · 16:30O. Osadchyi1.731110891O. Leonenko2.0061211113WOct 3 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.73111112A. Kovalenko2.008810WOct 3 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.25131210113E. Populovskyi3.7511101291
A. Kurtenko10
LOct 6 · 05:00I. Emets1.7311811113A. Kurtenko2.00611551WOct 4 · 12:50A. Kurtenko2.00101211113A. Kovalenko1.731210741WOct 4 · 10:50S. Solomko1.801295101A. Kurtenko1.91101111123LOct 4 · 08:50E. Populovskyi1.831814511113A. Kurtenko1.83201211782WOct 4 · 07:50A. Kurtenko2.0071111113O. Osadchyi1.73119751LOct 4 · 06:50A. Martyniuk1.36111011113A. Kurtenko3.00712971WSep 27 · 11:19A. Kurtenko1.9111411973S. Solomko1.8091181152WSep 27 · 09:20O. Osadchyi1.737111381A. Kurtenko2.00111311113LSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123WSep 27 · 07:20S. Solomko1.801191211102A. Kurtenko1.911311108123
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