TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Kovalenko vs Eduard Rubtsov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121010121012113118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 67.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 39–27 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 27 of their 66 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1767.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-27 in 66
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1617 vs Rubtsov 1490
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Rubtsov 20%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 40% vs Rubtsov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Rubtsov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.444 / Rubtsov 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kovalenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250549
Kovalenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Rubtsov2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 100 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayRubtsov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayRubtsov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko7Rubtsov3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalenko5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko6Rubtsov4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalenko2Rubtsov4n = 6Rubtsov took 4 of 6
S5Kovalenko1Rubtsov2n = 3Rubtsov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoRubtsovK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.435.5+1.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 425 vs 291 / 74844%38.9%187 / 425 vs 291 / 748Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.44/Rubtsov 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 22:25V. Kovalenko29661161E. Rubtsov4111118113
LSep 30 · 03:55V. Kovalenko4899111182E. Rubtsov48111178113
WSep 23 · 14:35V. Kovalenko43111011113E. Rubtsov31612581
WSep 23 · 02:55V. Kovalenko331111113E. Rubtsov229490
WSep 10 · 02:25V. Kovalenko341111123E. Rubtsov2293100
WSep 3 · 03:25V. Kovalenko331111113E. Rubtsov219480
LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko32139551E. Rubtsov44111111113
LAug 24 · 21:25V. Kovalenko49111198102E. Rubtsov43811111123
WAug 20 · 19:25V. Kovalenko551111814113E. Rubtsov4986111682
LAug 20 · 00:55V. Kovalenko1826100E. Rubtsov341111123
V. Kovalenko10
WOct 6 · 22:25V. Krokhmal2.101196101V. Kovalenko1.6781111123WOct 1 · 03:55V. Kovalenko1.8091111113O. Mishchenko1.91116571LOct 1 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36951111123V. Kovalenko3.00111198102LOct 1 · 00:55V. Kovalenko1.83311101152O. Kovalchuk1.83119127113LSep 30 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko1.0611126113V. Kovalenko8.007101191LSep 30 · 22:25V. Kovalenko1.50661161E. Rubtsov2.5011118113LSep 30 · 03:55E. Rubtsov2.63111178113V. Kovalenko1.4499111182WSep 30 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.836890V. Kovalenko1.831111113WSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133LSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180
E. Rubtsov10
WOct 6 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk1.6798111482E. Rubtsov2.101111912113LOct 2 · 17:55A. Chepurnyi1.301211123E. Rubtsov3.40107100LOct 2 · 16:25E. Rubtsov2.63461181P. Plakushchyi1.4411117113LOct 2 · 14:55E. Rubtsov3.005114121O. Mishchenko1.3611811143LOct 2 · 13:25E. Rubtsov1.9113840O. Kovalchuk1.801511113LOct 1 · 04:25E. Rubtsov1.9111331192O. Kovalchuk1.80911119113WOct 1 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko1.0213126682E. Rubtsov10.5011101111113LOct 1 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi1.30118911173E. Rubtsov3.40911117152WSep 30 · 22:25V. Kovalenko1.50661161E. Rubtsov2.5011118113WSep 30 · 03:55E. Rubtsov2.63111178113V. Kovalenko1.4499111182
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalenko
Oct 7 · 00:25V. Kovalenko1.83O. Kovalchuk1.83—Oct 7 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.57V. Panasenko2.25—Oct 7 · 04:25V. Kovalenko1.73O. Mishchenko2.00—Oct 7 · 13:25V. Kovalenko—V. Krokhmal——Oct 7 · 14:55V. Kovalenko1.73O. Mishchenko2.00—Oct 7 · 16:25V. Kovalenko1.83O. Kovalchuk1.83—Oct 7 · 17:55V. Kovalenko3.00A. Chepurnyi1.36—Oct 7 · 19:25V. Kovalenko1.53E. Rubtsov2.38—
E. Rubtsov
Oct 7 · 01:25E. Rubtsov1.91V. Panasenko1.80—Oct 7 · 02:55E. Rubtsov3.00O. Mishchenko1.36—Oct 7 · 03:55E. Rubtsov1.83V. Krokhmal1.83—Oct 7 · 13:55E. Rubtsov3.00O. Mishchenko1.36—Oct 7 · 15:55E. Rubtsov3.40A. Chepurnyi1.30—Oct 7 · 17:25E. Rubtsov—V. Krokhmal——Oct 7 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.10O. Kovalchuk1.67—Oct 7 · 19:25E. Rubtsov2.38V. Kovalenko1.53—
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