TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Jasek vs Miroslav Kowolowski 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Jasek above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 62.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Milan Jasek 2–3 Miroslav Kowolowski Milan Jasek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2162.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kowolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jasek 1400 vs Kowolowski 1466
Kowolowski
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jasek 60% vs Kowolowski 20%
Jasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jasek 60% vs Kowolowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jasek +2 · Kowolowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kowolowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowolowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJasek 2.375 / Kowolowski 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kowolowski)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249161
Jasek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Kowolowski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 62 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJasek2wins
AwayKowolowski3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKowolowski leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKowolowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jasek2Kowolowski3n = 5Kowolowski took 3 of 5
S2Jasek3Kowolowski2n = 5Jasek took 3 of 5
S3Jasek4Kowolowski1n = 5Jasek took 4 of 5
S4Jasek0Kowolowski3n = 3Kowolowski took 3 of 3
S5Jasek1Kowolowski2n = 3Kowolowski took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricJasekKowolowskiJ − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.439.40.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJasekKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 261 vs 171 / 31147.9%55%125 / 261 vs 171 / 311Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiJasek 2.38/Kowolowski 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 21 · 20:00M. Jasek3811311762M. Kowolowski48811711113
LJul 19 · 09:30M. Jasek239590M. Kowolowski331111113
WJul 19 · 08:00M. Jasek351111133M. Kowolowski2393110
WJul 14 · 18:30M. Jasek50811137113M. Kowolowski43115111152
LJul 7 · 20:30M. Jasek51121112792M. Kowolowski501441011113
M. Jasek10
WOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580LOct 6 · 20:30I. Taichman1.5711119113M. Jasek2.25781161WOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113WSep 27 · 12:59D. Priesol3.2510870M. Jasek1.331211113LSep 27 · 12:00F. Zurek1.6111611113M. Jasek2.20511661LSep 27 · 11:00T. Hrabec1.831111103M. Jasek1.838860WSep 27 · 10:30M. Jasek1.401111113D. Priesol2.758550LSep 25 · 21:30T. Kraninger1.501111113M. Jasek2.405580WSep 25 · 20:00M. Jasek2.201111113J. Peter1.616770LSep 25 · 19:30T. Kraninger1.571111113M. Jasek2.259990
M. Kowolowski10
LOct 6 · 20:58I. Taichman2.001114113M. Kowolowski1.7351240LOct 6 · 20:00M. Kowolowski1.6118771162R. Guliak2.201611118113LOct 6 · 18:00M. Kowolowski1.539460I. Taichman2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:58R. Adam1.61911411113M. Kowolowski2.2011811682WOct 5 · 08:30R. Adam1.50111110582M. Kowolowski2.50471211113LOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113LOct 5 · 06:30E. Gebek1.671412113M. Kowolowski2.10121090WOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113LOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850WOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.