TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Andrii Hrabskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121012107111111210
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Hrabskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Andrii Hrabskyi at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 7–10 Andrii Hrabskyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrabskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1605 vs Hrabskyi 1626
Hrabskyi
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Hrabskyi 60%
Hrabskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Hrabskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -3 · Hrabskyi -2
Plakushchyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrabskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.909 / Hrabskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrabskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245559
Plakushchyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Hrabskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 56 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi5wins
AwayHrabskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi80%4 of 5
AwayHrabskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Hrabskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi6Hrabskyi4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Plakushchyi4Hrabskyi6n = 10Hrabskyi took 6 of 10
S4Plakushchyi5Hrabskyi3n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5Plakushchyi1Hrabskyi3n = 4Hrabskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiHrabskyiP − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.4−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 746 vs 249 / 57444.5%43.4%332 / 746 vs 249 / 574Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrabskyiPlakushchyi 1.91/Hrabskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrabskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 30 · 06:50P. Plakushchyi561111158113A. Hrabskyi4778171142
LSep 29 · 12:30P. Plakushchyi4211761352A. Hrabskyi539111111113
WSep 28 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi3711114113A. Hrabskyi37981191
LSep 25 · 15:53P. Plakushchyi29851151A. Hrabskyi4211119113
WSep 25 · 15:40P. Plakushchyi4216114113A. Hrabskyi421481191
LSep 7 · 10:40P. Plakushchyi4671111892A. Hrabskyi41114411113
LJul 31 · 12:10P. Plakushchyi52911101482A. Hrabskyi551191212113
LJun 17 · 09:20P. Plakushchyi2812880A. Hrabskyi361411113
WJun 3 · 10:49P. Plakushchyi45111112113A. Hrabskyi387131081
P. Plakushchyi10
LOct 5 · 13:30P. Plakushchyi2.631212641A. Yurkov1.44141011113LOct 4 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.361111113P. Plakushchyi3.008750LOct 4 · 00:25P. Plakushchyi1.61481141O. Kovalchuk2.2011119113LOct 3 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi2.254950A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311811113O. Mishchenko2.00911641WOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123WOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172WOct 2 · 16:25E. Rubtsov2.63461181P. Plakushchyi1.4411117113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5711911113P. Plakushchyi2.25311571LOct 2 · 13:55O. Mishchenko2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.739890
A. Hrabskyi10
LOct 2 · 17:10V. Savoliuk2.501111153A. Hrabskyi1.5086140LOct 2 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.331311113A. Hrabskyi3.2511570WOct 2 · 14:40O. Seliuchenko2.00811131282A. Hrabskyi1.731151114113WOct 2 · 12:40V. Marushchak1.50101070A. Hrabskyi2.501212113WSep 30 · 12:20A. Hrabskyi1.731361410113M. Deineha2.001111121222LSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 09:20A. Hrabskyi3.251110611143A. Lievshin1.33612119122LSep 30 · 08:20A. Yurkov1.8091111113A. Hrabskyi1.91118891LSep 30 · 06:50A. Hrabskyi1.8078171142P. Plakushchyi1.911111158113LSep 29 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.571311113A. Hrabskyi2.2511290
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