TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Holub vs Patrik Muller 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141214911115511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 93 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Martin Holub at 68.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 14–7 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2668.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-7 in 21
Holub
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1299 vs Muller 1152
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 20% vs Muller 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 30% vs Muller 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Muller -3
Muller
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.444 / Muller 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Holub)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13245207
Holub1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it69% 63 of 92
Muller2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 20 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub6wins
AwayMuller4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub66.7%4 of 6
AwayMuller50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub6Muller4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holub5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub6Muller4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub6Muller3n = 9Holub took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubMullerH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.236.3+3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 648 vs 75 / 17254.2%43.6%351 / 648 vs 75 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.44/Muller 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 05:30M. Holub46118115112P. Muller51911711133
WSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub4391111123P. Muller321174101
WSep 6 · 15:00M. Holub4281211113P. Muller341110761
WJun 26 · 09:30M. Holub4111811113P. Muller28311681
WJun 13 · 13:15M. Holub4212118113P. Muller331081141
WJun 3 · 10:00M. Holub4211119113P. Muller31591161
LApr 28 · 12:43M. Holub33971161P. Muller3711114113
LApr 28 · 11:45M. Holub257990P. Muller331111113
LApr 23 · 10:15M. Holub4711813692P. Muller528111111113
WApr 13 · 11:00M. Holub4111118113P. Muller32671181
M. Holub10
LOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113WOct 5 · 09:30M. Holub2.3851111113P. Moulis1.53115951LOct 4 · 16:36M. Cmil1.651181111123M. Holub2.10511139102LOct 4 · 15:30P. Moulis1.53951111113M. Holub2.3811117732LOct 4 · 15:00M. Holub1.3611791192V. Kucala3.00211115113LOct 4 · 14:00M. Holub1.83111181032M. Cmil1.83551112113LOct 3 · 20:28J. Jnr1.731114113M. Holub2.0051280WOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172LOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113LOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113
P. Muller10
LOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871LSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 07:30A. Akopyan1.7381111123P. Muller2.001179101WSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181LSep 29 · 06:00P. Muller1.91105121192J. Vrnak1.801211104113LSep 24 · 12:43V. Kilian2.001111113P. Muller1.739640LSep 24 · 11:30T. Holomek1.801311113P. Muller1.9111790LSep 24 · 11:00P. Muller1.618540A. Akopyan2.201111113WSep 24 · 10:00P. Muller1.835111110113V. Kilian1.8311471222WSep 22 · 08:39P. Muller1.91191111113A. Skyba1.80217771
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