TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Orest Hura 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116113811811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 3–5 Orest Hura Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Hura
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1618 vs Hura 1564
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Hura 80%
Hura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 60% vs Hura 40%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -2 · Hura +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.833 / Hura 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245191
Lazebnyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Hura1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLazebnyi3wins
AwayHura5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderHura leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayHura80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi3Hura5n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S2Lazebnyi5Hura3n = 8Lazebnyi took 5 of 8
S3Lazebnyi3Hura5n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S4Lazebnyi3Hura3n = 6split evenly
S5Lazebnyi1Hura2n = 3Hura took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLazebnyiHuraL − HBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match40.441.5−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 173 vs 423 / 80749.7%52.4%86 / 173 vs 423 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.83/Hura 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 1 · 23:45R. Lazebnyi4691113133O. Hura4111811111
LSep 26 · 17:35R. Lazebnyi429611161O. Hura4711117183
LSep 17 · 02:45R. Lazebnyi45711511112O. Hura46118113133
LSep 2 · 01:15R. Lazebnyi48111110792O. Hura52991211113
WAug 25 · 20:15R. Lazebnyi521171111123O. Hura51911138102
LAug 18 · 23:45R. Lazebnyi197570O. Hura331111113
LAug 6 · 23:15R. Lazebnyi388111091O. Hura4311912113
WAug 1 · 16:35R. Lazebnyi331111113O. Hura195860
R. Lazebnyi10
WOct 6 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.7531050R. Lazebnyi1.401112113LOct 6 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi1.44811961O. Mitla2.6311711113LOct 6 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.381111113R. Lazebnyi1.539870LOct 6 · 03:00R. Lazebnyi1.676780Y. Shmyndra2.101111113LOct 6 · 01:00M. Smyrnov2.38111174113R. Lazebnyi1.5387111172WOct 5 · 23:00A. Shypilov2.638740R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko2.63131013113R. Lazebnyi1.4411121151LOct 2 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.501113913113R. Lazebnyi1.50611111592WOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133
O. Hura10
WOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113WOct 6 · 01:30Y. Shmyndra2.201831081O. Hura1.61161112113LOct 6 · 00:00M. Smyrnov2.201141110183O. Hura1.61211812162WOct 5 · 20:00A. Shypilov2.0041480O. Hura1.731116113WOct 4 · 11:35O. Hura1.671411811123O. Mitla2.10167114102LOct 4 · 09:35V. Plishylo1.61511711113O. Hura2.2011711992WOct 4 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.57981181O. Hura2.2511117113WOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1011117113O. Hura1.67631191LOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133
Upcoming Matches
R. Lazebnyi
Oct 7 · 01:15R. Lazebnyi1.50M. Smyrnov2.50—Oct 7 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi2.20N. Kovalchuk1.61—Oct 7 · 20:45R. Lazebnyi1.61M. Smyrnov2.20—Oct 7 · 21:45R. Lazebnyi1.40A. Shypilov2.75—Oct 7 · 23:45R. Lazebnyi1.53O. Mitla2.38—Oct 8 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi2.20N. Kovalchuk1.61—Oct 8 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.91O. Hura1.80—
O. Hura
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