TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Syksa vs Oleksandr Ziakun 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101213111197111214
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:55 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Syksa to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Syksa above · Oleksandr Ziakun below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 110 set 5, 12-14 · our read held Oleksandr Syksa at 62.0%
110 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Syksa 68–37 Oleksandr Ziakun Oleksandr Ziakun has won 37 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5562.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Syksa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
68-37 in 105
Syksa
Wrong
gap of 31 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Syksa 1491 vs Ziakun 1537
Ziakun
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Syksa 20% vs Ziakun 60%
Ziakun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Syksa 20% vs Ziakun 50%
Ziakun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Syksa -2 · Ziakun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Syksa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ziakun form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSyksa 1.533 / Ziakun 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Syksa)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245150
Syksa1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 247 of 363
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it83% 165 of 199
Ziakun2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 92 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSyksa3wins
AwayZiakun7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZiakun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSyksa66.7%2 of 3
AwayZiakun85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Syksa3Ziakun7n = 10Ziakun took 7 of 10
S2Syksa5Ziakun5n = 10split evenly
S3Syksa5Ziakun5n = 10split evenly
S4Syksa4Ziakun5n = 9Ziakun took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSyksaZiakunS − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.442.4−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSyksaZiakunBasisWin rate · lifetime593 / 1128 vs 359 / 75952.6%47.3%593 / 1128 vs 359 / 759Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SyksaSyksa 1.53/Ziakun 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Syksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ziakun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 5 · 07:00O. Syksa531013117122O. Ziakun571211911143
LOct 2 · 09:00O. Syksa36117991O. Ziakun3851111113
WOct 1 · 09:00O. Syksa3831112123O. Ziakun4011910101
LSep 27 · 08:00O. Syksa38981381O. Ziakun44111111113
LSep 23 · 06:00O. Syksa30911100O. Ziakun361113123
LSep 18 · 06:00O. Syksa375148101O. Ziakun46111211123
WSep 17 · 10:30O. Syksa4311135143O. Ziakun3841111121
LSep 11 · 04:30O. Syksa33851191O. Ziakun4011117113
WSep 9 · 10:00O. Syksa4713913123O. Ziakun43111111101
O. Syksa10
LOct 5 · 05:00O. Syksa2.38111051172M. Hubenko1.53512113113LOct 4 · 17:03O. Syksa1.9111451262S. Aristarkhov1.807111110113WOct 4 · 16:00O. Syksa1.671211113D. Kuzmenko2.1010570LOct 4 · 15:00A. Vasylets1.501111103O. Syksa2.507790LOct 4 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov1.80811911113O. Syksa1.9111811932LOct 4 · 12:30M. Hubenko1.361111113O. Syksa3.008660LOct 2 · 10:30O. Syksa1.4412121071D. Prylepa2.63141012113LOct 2 · 09:00O. Syksa1.57117991O. Ziakun2.2551111113WOct 2 · 07:30O. Syksa1.30111169113S. Miroshnychenko3.4085111152LOct 2 · 06:00O. Syksa1.734870D. Kuzmenko2.001111113
O. Ziakun10
WOct 5 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.5031211113O. Lyman2.501110791LOct 2 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.6139110O. Lyman2.201111133WOct 2 · 09:00O. Syksa1.57117991O. Ziakun2.2551111113WOct 2 · 08:00O. Ziakun2.00511411113D. Kuzmenko1.7311911782LOct 2 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.7311116113O. Ziakun2.00771191WOct 2 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.4411911113S. Miroshnychenko2.63711891WOct 1 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.0011149113D. Prylepa1.736121171LOct 1 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.6311910101O. Syksa1.4431112123LOct 1 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.003890D. Kuzmenko1.731111113LOct 1 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.006890M. Hubenko1.361111113
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