TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Smyrnov vs Orest Hura 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11241111810121816
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 18-16
Point 103 set 5, 18-16 · our read held Orest Hura at 58.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 40–36 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 36 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5858.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hura
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-36 in 76
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 4 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1531 vs Hura 1576
Hura
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 40% vs Hura 80%
Hura
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 60% vs Hura 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -2 · Hura +3
Hura
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.20 / Hura 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hura)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13244617
Smyrnov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 96 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Hura1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 97 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it71% 67 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayHura6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov57.1%4 of 7
AwayHura100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov7Hura3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S3Smyrnov3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S4Smyrnov5Hura3n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovHuraS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.4−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 870 vs 424 / 80848.4%52.5%421 / 870 vs 424 / 808Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HuraSmyrnov 2.20/Hura 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov3911611113O. Hura29511671
LOct 1 · 21:15M. Smyrnov3511126242O. Hura529101111113
LOct 1 · 03:15M. Smyrnov259790O. Hura331111113
LSep 29 · 21:15M. Smyrnov361191061O. Hura3951112113
LSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov381161471O. Hura47131112113
LSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov237790O. Hura331111113
WSep 9 · 23:45M. Smyrnov3611113113O. Hura37891191
LSep 5 · 12:35M. Smyrnov50128811112O. Hura541011119133
WSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov4211911113O. Hura32611691
WSep 3 · 00:45M. Smyrnov3813113113O. Hura381181181
M. Smyrnov10
LOct 6 · 22:45M. Smyrnov1.671171011142V. Vlasenko2.10811127163LOct 6 · 20:45M. Smyrnov2.38581121N. Kovalchuk1.5311118113WOct 6 · 02:00A. Shypilov2.101011111172M. Smyrnov1.67129135113WOct 6 · 01:00M. Smyrnov2.38111174113R. Lazebnyi1.5387111172LOct 5 · 22:30M. Smyrnov1.6711114101V. Vlasenko2.1013811123LOct 5 · 20:30M. Smyrnov1.917290Y. Shmyndra1.801111113WOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov2.1011611113O. Hura1.67511671LOct 3 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra1.911111123M. Smyrnov1.8099100WOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113WOct 3 · 14:05M. Smyrnov2.3811411113N. Kovalchuk1.53711581
O. Hura10
WOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113WOct 6 · 01:30Y. Shmyndra2.201831081O. Hura1.61161112113WOct 5 · 22:00R. Lazebnyi1.83101111882O. Hura1.83126311113WOct 5 · 20:00A. Shypilov2.0041480O. Hura1.731116113WOct 4 · 11:35O. Hura1.671411811123O. Mitla2.10167114102LOct 4 · 09:35V. Plishylo1.61511711113O. Hura2.2011711992WOct 4 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.57981181O. Hura2.2511117113WOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1011117113O. Hura1.67631191LOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov2.1011611113O. Hura1.67511671
Upcoming Matches
M. Smyrnov
Oct 7 · 00:15M. Smyrnov1.80O. Mitla1.91—Oct 7 · 01:15M. Smyrnov2.50R. Lazebnyi1.50—Oct 7 · 02:15M. Smyrnov1.73A. Shypilov2.00—Oct 7 · 20:45M. Smyrnov2.20R. Lazebnyi1.61—Oct 7 · 22:45M. Smyrnov1.80O. Mitla1.91—Oct 8 · 00:15M. Smyrnov2.25N. Kovalchuk1.57—Oct 8 · 01:15M. Smyrnov2.10O. Hura1.67—Oct 8 · 02:15M. Smyrnov1.73A. Shypilov2.00—
O. Hura
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