TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matej Grundel vs Radim Urbaniec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Matej Grundel at 65.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 13–4 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Urbaniec beat Grundel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1065.7%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 20.1pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-4 in 17
Grundel
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1771 vs Urbaniec 1819
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Urbaniec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 80% vs Urbaniec 60%
Grundel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +1 · Urbaniec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Grundel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.166 / Urbaniec 4.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Grundel)-20.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244559
Grundel1.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Urbaniec4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 188 of 467
Down 0–1, comes back23% 61 of 262
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel7wins
AwayUrbaniec3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGrundel leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel87.5%7 of 8
AwayUrbaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel8Urbaniec2n = 10Grundel took 8 of 10
S2Grundel6Urbaniec4n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S3Grundel7Urbaniec3n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S4Grundel3Urbaniec2n = 5Grundel took 3 of 5
S5Grundel1Urbaniec2n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelUrbaniecG − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.731.1+5.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 337 vs 686 / 133852.5%51.3%177 / 337 vs 686 / 1338Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelGrundel 1.17/Urbaniec 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 15:00M. Grundel44114136102R. Urbaniec472111111123
WSep 3 · 15:30M. Grundel331111113R. Urbaniec153660
LJul 30 · 17:28M. Grundel195860R. Urbaniec331111113
WJul 30 · 16:30M. Grundel3911116113R. Urbaniec34691181
WJun 29 · 15:00M. Grundel331111113R. Urbaniec229580
WJun 28 · 08:58M. Grundel47116118113R. Urbaniec4461181182
WJun 28 · 07:30M. Grundel4211911113R. Urbaniec30611851
WMay 3 · 13:30M. Grundel331111113R. Urbaniec204790
LMay 3 · 12:30M. Grundel4261181162R. Urbaniec43115115113
WApr 23 · 15:00M. Grundel351311113R. Urbaniec2311390
M. Grundel10
WOct 4 · 16:00M. Cabis1.8391181352M. Grundel1.831161111113LOct 4 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.402111111123M. Grundel1.30114136102WOct 4 · 14:30M. Grundel1.571111113F. Nadymacek2.255780LOct 2 · 17:30M. Grundel2.059121141P. Wawrosz1.6811148113WOct 2 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0011119862M. Grundel1.73681111113WOct 2 · 15:30M. Grundel1.83111179123M. Cabis1.83691111102WOct 2 · 14:30P. Wawrosz1.6711671172M. Grundel2.10611114113WSep 24 · 17:04M. Grundel1.571091311113M. Cabis2.25121111372WSep 24 · 16:30M. Cabis1.83812617132M. Grundel1.8311101115153WSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112
R. Urbaniec10
WOct 4 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.001111113F. Nadymacek1.739450WOct 4 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.402111111123M. Grundel1.30114136102LOct 4 · 14:00M. Cabis1.33811118113R. Urbaniec3.2511351122WSep 30 · 16:59P. Gireth1.179790R. Urbaniec4.501111113LSep 30 · 16:30R. Urbaniec3.759410P. Gireth1.251111113LSep 30 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.10101291142M. Huk1.671210116113WSep 30 · 14:00M. Jezek1.4431370R. Urbaniec2.631115113WSep 30 · 09:30J. Kycelt1.36119261R. Urbaniec3.0041111113WSep 30 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.38911512113J. Vales1.53118111082LSep 30 · 07:00R. Urbaniec3.00911591J. Kycelt1.3611811113
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