TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Shmyndra vs Orest Hura 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
18163111012811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 89 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Orest Hura at 55.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 7–10 Orest Hura Yurii Shmyndra has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:2355.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Hura
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1601 vs Hura 1564
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 60% vs Hura 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 60% vs Hura 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra +1 · Hura -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.20 / Hura 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hura)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13244508
Shmyndra2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Hura1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 97 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it71% 67 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra4wins
AwayHura6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra75%3 of 4
AwayHura83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Shmyndra6Hura4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S3Shmyndra3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10
S4Shmyndra3Hura5n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S5Shmyndra2Hura2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraHuraS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.4−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 215 vs 424 / 80946.1%52.4%99 / 215 vs 424 / 809Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HuraShmyndra 2.20/Hura 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 06:35Y. Shmyndra2711790O. Hura351311113
LOct 3 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra30813721O. Hura44111111113
LSep 5 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra33811681O. Hura4211911113
LAug 30 · 05:35Y. Shmyndra4691191162O. Hura47118116113
LAug 29 · 16:35Y. Shmyndra4511811872O. Hura45811411113
WAug 23 · 08:05Y. Shmyndra4211711133O. Hura399118111
LAug 22 · 01:00Y. Shmyndra229580O. Hura331111113
WAug 16 · 06:35Y. Shmyndra41111135113O. Hura4149111162
WAug 15 · 19:05Y. Shmyndra4071111113O. Hura32116871
WAug 8 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra531211109113O. Hura46107121162
Y. Shmyndra10
WOct 6 · 03:00R. Lazebnyi1.676780Y. Shmyndra2.101111113WOct 5 · 23:30V. Vlasenko2.00101090Y. Shmyndra1.731212113LOct 5 · 21:30A. Shypilov1.91571111113Y. Shmyndra1.8011116962WOct 5 · 20:30M. Smyrnov1.917290Y. Shmyndra1.801111113LOct 4 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.9116911113Y. Shmyndra1.801411491WOct 4 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2511411832Y. Shmyndra1.57911711113WOct 4 · 08:35V. Plishylo1.91611171Y. Shmyndra1.8011411113LOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.501111113Y. Shmyndra2.509670WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123
O. Hura10
WOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113LOct 6 · 00:00M. Smyrnov2.201141110183O. Hura1.61211812162WOct 5 · 22:00R. Lazebnyi1.83101111882O. Hura1.83126311113WOct 5 · 20:00A. Shypilov2.0041480O. Hura1.731116113WOct 4 · 11:35O. Hura1.671411811123O. Mitla2.10167114102LOct 4 · 09:35V. Plishylo1.61511711113O. Hura2.2011711992WOct 4 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.57981181O. Hura2.2511117113WOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1011117113O. Hura1.67631191LOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov2.1011611113O. Hura1.67511671
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