TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Frantisek Briza 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
18161171210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 74 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 60.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 12–10 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
They have already met 3 times today · last one 4h before this match
Svoboda beat Briza 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1660.9%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.3pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1480 vs Briza 1379
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 100% vs Briza 60%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 90% vs Briza 50%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +9 · Briza +2
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briza form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.533 / Briza 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Svoboda)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243570
Svoboda1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 73 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it88% 50 of 57
Briza2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back23% 31 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda8wins
AwayBriza2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda66.7%4 of 6
AwayBriza0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda6Briza4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda5Briza5n = 10split evenly
S3Svoboda5Briza5n = 10split evenly
S4Svoboda8Briza1n = 9Svoboda took 8 of 9
S5Svoboda4Briza2n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaBrizaS − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.337.6+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 380 vs 373 / 82652.4%45.2%199 / 380 vs 373 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Briza 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda46851111113F. Briza4111117572
WOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda3911611113F. Briza24411631
WOct 4 · 06:30A. Svoboda331111113F. Briza112450
WOct 3 · 10:30A. Svoboda52912911113F. Briza41111011272
WSep 27 · 12:58A. Svoboda3961111113F. Briza33118771
WSep 27 · 12:30A. Svoboda4515127113F. Briza4113101171
LSep 27 · 08:30A. Svoboda4111481172F. Briza48811117113
WSep 18 · 22:00A. Svoboda44112911113F. Briza4271111762
WSep 18 · 14:30A. Svoboda50611119133F. Briza46115811112
LSep 15 · 15:30A. Svoboda44115511122F. Briza49811115143
A. Svoboda10
WOct 4 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.611210123113D. Horak2.201012101152WOct 4 · 11:30T. Kolenic1.67119881A. Svoboda2.1081111113WOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572WOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda1.5011611113F. Briza2.50411631WOct 4 · 08:00D. Horak2.2012157762A. Svoboda1.6110131111113WOct 4 · 07:00M. Kolar1.834650A. Svoboda1.831111113WOct 4 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.731111113F. Briza2.002450WOct 3 · 13:30A. Svoboda2.1011124113M. Kolar1.653101181WOct 3 · 12:00D. Horak1.91119841A. Svoboda1.8041111113LOct 3 · 11:00M. Kolar1.61411118113A. Svoboda2.2011831162
F. Briza10
WOct 4 · 12:30F. Briza2.00111198133T. Kolenic1.73521111112WOct 4 · 11:00F. Briza2.201511113D. Horak1.6113860LOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572LOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda1.5011611113F. Briza2.50411631WOct 4 · 08:30M. Kolar1.5371040F. Briza2.381112113WOct 4 · 07:30F. Briza2.251111113D. Horak1.572530LOct 4 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.731111113F. Briza2.002450LOct 3 · 17:00F. Briza1.876790K. Darin1.831111113WOct 3 · 16:30D. Horak1.61761191F. Briza2.2011117113LOct 3 · 15:30F. Briza2.10961161K. Darin1.6711119113
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