TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Milan Smrcek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911511––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:21 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMilan Smrcek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Milan Smrcek at 56.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 21–29 Milan Smrcek Jan Steffan has won 21 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2156.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smrcek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-29 in 50
Smrcek
Correct
gap of 8 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1442 vs Smrcek 1405
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 60% vs Smrcek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Smrcek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -1 · Smrcek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Smrcek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 2.10 / Smrcek 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Smrcek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242912
Steffan2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 86 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Smrcek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan5wins
AwaySmrcek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan80%4 of 5
AwaySmrcek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan5Smrcek5n = 10split evenly
S2Steffan7Smrcek3n = 10Steffan took 7 of 10
S3Steffan0Smrcek10n = 10Smrcek took 10 of 10
S4Steffan5Smrcek3n = 8Steffan took 5 of 8
S5Steffan3Smrcek2n = 5Steffan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanSmrcekSteffan − SmrcekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.240.5−1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 973 vs 248 / 50847.7%48.8%464 / 973 vs 248 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekSteffan 2.10/Smrcek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smrcek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:30J. Steffan217950M. Smrcek331111113
WSep 16 · 23:00J. Steffan47111159113M. Smrcek4679111182
WAug 26 · 07:30J. Steffan42311611113M. Smrcek3811711452
WAug 23 · 01:30J. Steffan4312119113M. Smrcek311041161
WMay 25 · 01:31J. Steffan4211119113M. Smrcek32771171
LMay 24 · 22:00J. Steffan43111165102M. Smrcek49691111123
LApr 29 · 22:00J. Steffan44411101182M. Smrcek51119128113
WApr 24 · 08:30J. Steffan531161114113M. Smrcek52911131272
LApr 10 · 00:00J. Steffan237880M. Smrcek331111113
LApr 4 · 22:00J. Steffan349113111M. Smrcek4011511133
J. Steffan10
WOct 5 · 08:00T. Andrle1.838811121J. Steffan1.8311119143WOct 5 · 07:00J. Didi1.9110780J. Steffan1.801211113LOct 4 · 03:30M. Placek1.35861115113J. Steffan2.90111181362WOct 4 · 02:00J. Steffan1.8311117163J. Didi1.839911141WOct 4 · 01:00J. Steffan1.6711118113T. Andrle2.10881191WOct 4 · 00:00O. Kucirek2.10101191162J. Steffan1.67127114113LOct 3 · 22:30M. Placek1.401111113J. Steffan2.757930LOct 3 · 08:59O. Fejtek1.801111113J. Steffan1.917760LOct 3 · 08:30J. Didi1.88111011113J. Steffan1.82812971WOct 3 · 07:30J. Steffan1.73117118123O. Fejtek2.00611811102
M. Smrcek10
LOct 5 · 08:30J. Didi1.8391111133M. Smrcek1.831168111WOct 5 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.83119117113T. Andrle1.8371151182LOct 4 · 02:58M. Smrcek1.367114111V. Dolezal3.0011011133WOct 4 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.501112119113M. Stefek2.5091411162LOct 4 · 01:30R. Bartunek2.631111113M. Smrcek1.446970WOct 4 · 00:00M. Smrcek1.441111113V. Dolezal2.638740WOct 3 · 23:00L. Sulava2.50911781M. Smrcek1.5011811113LSep 17 · 03:30P. Picek1.7311311133M. Smrcek2.007113111LSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek1.80611117113M. Smrcek1.9111871152WSep 17 · 00:30M. Smrcek1.4411117113V. Dolezal2.63941151
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