TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jonas Kulveit vs Ondrej Varecka 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117117911411511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJonas Kulveit to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Ondrej Varecka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-7
Point 83 set 5, 5-7 · our read held Jonas Kulveit at 54.0%
83 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jonas Kulveit 2–1 Ondrej Varecka Ondrej Varecka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kulveit
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulveit 1585 vs Varecka 1472
Kulveit
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulveit 80% vs Varecka 40%
Kulveit
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulveit 80% vs Varecka 30%
Kulveit
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulveit -1 · Varecka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kulveit) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecka form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulveit 1.80 / Varecka 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kulveit)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242725
Kulveit1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 22 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Varecka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 28 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back39% 9 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKulveit2wins
AwayVarecka1wins
Kulveit leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulveitn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVarecka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulveit0Varecka3n = 3Varecka took 3 of 3
S2Kulveit3Varecka0n = 3Kulveit took 3 of 3
S3Kulveit2Varecka1n = 3Kulveit took 2 of 3
S4Kulveit2Varecka1n = 3Kulveit took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKulveitVareckaK − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match38.038.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulveitVareckaBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 286 vs 130 / 23550.7%55.3%145 / 286 vs 130 / 235Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KulveitKulveit 1.80/Varecka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kulveit · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Varecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit3961111113O. Varecka32119571
WJul 6 · 18:35J. Kulveit49101711113O. Varecka411215591
LJul 6 · 16:25J. Kulveit26511281O. Varecka4111811113
J. Kulveit10
WOct 4 · 16:20J. Kulveit1.571111113R. Jamrich2.257850LOct 4 · 14:20J. Kulveit2.0011990D. Sykora1.731311113WSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161WSep 28 · 17:25R. Jamrich2.2511123392J. Kulveit1.578101111113WSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 14:55O. Varecka1.80119571J. Kulveit1.9161111113WSep 27 · 10:29J. Kulveit1.5711511113R. Jamrich2.25711881WSep 27 · 08:55J. Kulveit1.61311134113R. Jamrich2.20115111192LSep 27 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.5351111992Z. Zahradka2.38117711113WSep 27 · 06:55J. Kulveit1.805111611113A. Kral1.91115141342
O. Varecka10
WOct 4 · 14:50R. Jamrich2.007980O. Varecka1.731111113LSep 28 · 18:10O. Varecka2.0011351192R. Jamrich1.73911115113WSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 15:55O. Varecka1.57711581R. Jamrich2.2511611113LSep 28 · 14:55O. Varecka1.80119571J. Kulveit1.9161111113LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Hejda Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113
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