TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Plachy vs Jaroslav Prokupek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 121–102 Jaroslav Prokupek Jaroslav Prokupek has won 102 of their 223 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Plachy beat Prokupek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2854.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Prokupek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
121-102 in 223
Plachy
Wrong
gap of 19 in 223, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1498 vs Prokupek 1443
Plachy
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 80% vs Prokupek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 70% vs Prokupek 40%
Plachy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +2 · Prokupek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prokupek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 1.85 / Prokupek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Plachy)-0.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13242031
Plachy1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Prokupek1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy6wins
AwayProkupek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlachy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayProkupek50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy2Prokupek8n = 10Prokupek took 8 of 10
S2Plachy8Prokupek2n = 10Plachy took 8 of 10
S3Plachy4Prokupek6n = 10Prokupek took 6 of 10
S4Plachy5Prokupek4n = 9Plachy took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyProkupekPlachy − ProkupekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.538.2+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime735 / 1596 vs 669 / 139946.1%47.8%735 / 1596 vs 669 / 1399Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyPlachy 1.85/Prokupek 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 03:30J. Plachy2681080J. Prokupek341112113
WOct 4 · 02:00J. Plachy3411110123J. Prokupek326511101
LOct 2 · 09:18J. Plachy401212881J. Prokupek46141011113
WOct 2 · 08:30J. Plachy49811811113J. Prokupek4511611982
WOct 1 · 12:30J. Plachy557151111113J. Prokupek50111361372
LSep 29 · 23:30J. Plachy28361181J. Prokupek4211119113
WSep 23 · 11:30J. Plachy3711114113J. Prokupek32981141
WSep 14 · 02:00J. Plachy4181111113J. Prokupek22114611
WSep 11 · 20:30J. Plachy4591411113J. Prokupek371112951
LSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy4091110101J. Prokupek4211712123
J. Plachy10
WOct 4 · 02:00J. Plachy1.8311110123J. Prokupek1.836511101WOct 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.25891111113M. Vedmoch1.5711116982LOct 4 · 00:00J. Trefny1.83121168113J. Plachy1.83106111132WOct 3 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73341181J. Plachy2.0011116113WOct 3 · 21:05J. Plachy1.471111113J. Dedek2.508860LOct 3 · 20:00L. Krok1.7311411113J. Plachy2.00711571WOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113LOct 3 · 18:30J. Plachy1.6181161152K. Darin2.20119116113WOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972WOct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka1.53911691J. Plachy2.3811911113
J. Prokupek10
LOct 4 · 02:00J. Plachy1.8311110123J. Prokupek1.836511101WOct 4 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.57151479113P. Fojt2.251312111162WOct 3 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.831111113J. Trefny1.837890WOct 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.736930J. Prokupek2.001111113WOct 3 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.5391270J. Prokupek2.381114113LOct 3 · 12:30M. Vedmoch1.571191112113J. Prokupek2.2571171442LOct 3 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.3812830J. Stolfa1.531411113LOct 3 · 10:30T. Vinter1.401411113J. Prokupek2.7512860LOct 2 · 17:05T. Dousa1.10111197113J. Prokupek6.5098111182LOct 2 · 16:30J. Prokupek1.91511971T. Dousa1.8011711113
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