TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Baranskyi vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811113511117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Baranskyi above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 66.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Baranskyi 6–2 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0966.1%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 15.7pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Baranskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Baranskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baranskyi 1393 vs Ovsiienko 1382
Baranskyi
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baranskyi 40% vs Ovsiienko 60%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baranskyi 30% vs Ovsiienko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baranskyi +1 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Baranskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaranskyi 1.222 / Ovsiienko 4.00
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Baranskyi)-15.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240430
Baranskyi1.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 27 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Ovsiienko4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBaranskyi6wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBaranskyi leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaranskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baranskyi2Ovsiienko6n = 8Ovsiienko took 6 of 8
S2Baranskyi6Ovsiienko2n = 8Baranskyi took 6 of 8
S3Baranskyi8Ovsiienko0n = 8Baranskyi took 8 of 8
S4Baranskyi5Ovsiienko1n = 6Baranskyi took 5 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBaranskyiOvsiienkoB − OBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match39.732.3+7.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranskyiOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 200 vs 459 / 89053%51.6%106 / 200 vs 459 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaranskyiBaranskyi 1.22/Ovsiienko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Baranskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baranskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi4291111113O. Ovsiienko28113771
WSep 13 · 18:30S. Baranskyi331111113O. Ovsiienko214980
WSep 6 · 17:30S. Baranskyi331111113O. Ovsiienko188640
WAug 8 · 04:30S. Baranskyi4661113163O. Ovsiienko4511911141
WMay 10 · 17:40S. Baranskyi3741111113O. Ovsiienko32115971
LMay 1 · 05:00S. Baranskyi457919101O. Ovsiienko51111117123
WMar 1 · 13:40S. Baranskyi4291111113O. Ovsiienko31118481
S. Baranskyi10
LOct 4 · 14:30S. Baranskyi1.7311751162O. Mytsyk2.00411117113WSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113LSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123WSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:30S. Baranskyi2.20115671V. Smyk1.6141111113LSep 30 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.5311731142M. Stetsenko2.38911115113LSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101LSep 19 · 17:30S. Solomko1.44111187113S. Baranskyi2.6376111162LSep 19 · 16:00B. Zaika1.3311119113S. Baranskyi3.25641171LSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi1.731611113S. Baranskyi2.0014990
O. Ovsiienko10
LOct 4 · 13:30V. Nechai2.2511911113O. Ovsiienko1.57811981WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113LOct 1 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.009330LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760WOct 1 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8314791182O. Ovsiienko1.831211117113WOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0010750O. Ovsiienko1.731211113LSep 30 · 18:30V. Smyk1.501111113O. Ovsiienko2.505550LSep 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.831111113O. Ovsiienko1.833750LSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.10611516123O. Ovsiienko1.671181114102
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