TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Oleh Efimov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111181210611119
Oleh Efimov
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched: 78.2% is still 78.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
78.2%
78.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Oleh Efimov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 78.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 7–1 Oleh Efimov Oleh Efimov has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2778.2%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 3.6pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1103 vs Efimov 836
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 267 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Efimov 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 90% vs Efimov 30%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Efimov +1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Efimov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.222 / Efimov 4.00
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240279
Ponomarenko1.22
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite71% won 79 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it88% 61 of 69
Efimov4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 5 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back18% 3 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayEfimov1wins
Ponomarenko leads 7–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%6 of 6
AwayEfimovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Efimov2n = 8Ponomarenko took 6 of 8
S2Ponomarenko5Efimov3n = 8Ponomarenko took 5 of 8
S3Ponomarenko6Efimov2n = 8Ponomarenko took 6 of 8
S4Ponomarenko4Efimov0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoEfimovP − EBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.528.4+8.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoEfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 661 vs 12 / 5347.1%22.6%311 / 661 vs 12 / 53Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.432.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.22/Efimov 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.2%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko341112113O. Efimov2671090
LSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko3099120O. Efimov361111143
WJun 2 · 05:30O. Ponomarenko4012611113O. Efimov351011861
WApr 23 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Efimov217950
WApr 16 · 07:05O. Ponomarenko4071111113O. Efimov29114771
WApr 3 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Efimov158610
WFeb 6 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko4312118123O. Efimov3510411101
WJan 30 · 11:00O. Ponomarenko3911611113O. Efimov30711841
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151WOct 2 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.331211123K. Vernudin3.25105100WOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881WOct 2 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.801111113V. Mykhalchenko1.917840WOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.509870WOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090LSep 26 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko3.7589111482O. Stopin1.251111912113WSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.301191111163M. Mykhailenko3.40911135142WSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480WSep 26 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.401111113K. Tsoi2.759560
O. Efimov10
WOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.1012101251O. Efimov1.67141210113LOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov1.221111113O. Efimov4.006870LOct 2 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.2811118113O. Efimov3.50681171WOct 2 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.10113811102O. Efimov6.50711118123LOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090LSep 25 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754730LSep 25 · 17:30O. Efimov3.40121020D. Kunchurov1.301412103LSep 25 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.63911116143O. Efimov1.44119811122WSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.1799120O. Efimov4.501111143LSep 25 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.611111143O. Efimov2.2065120
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