TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Skacelik vs David Heczko 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111214117911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Richard Skacelik at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Richard Skacelik 9–7 David Heczko David Heczko has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Skacelik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1646 vs Heczko 1558
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 40% vs Heczko 20%
Skacelik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 50% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik +1 · Heczko -4
Heczko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 1.80 / Heczko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skacelik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13239398
Skacelik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 68 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it69% 51 of 74
Heczko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik5wins
AwayHeczko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik100%3 of 3
AwayHeczko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik3Heczko7n = 10Heczko took 7 of 10
S2Skacelik5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Skacelik5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S4Skacelik2Heczko7n = 9Heczko took 7 of 9
S5Skacelik4Heczko0n = 4Skacelik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikHeczkoS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.50.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 495 vs 266 / 49048.9%54.3%242 / 495 vs 266 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 1.80/Heczko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 07:00R. Skacelik397121191D. Heczko4311147113
LSep 18 · 08:58R. Skacelik2121270D. Heczko361114113
LSep 18 · 08:00R. Skacelik3810114131D. Heczko4412611153
WSep 12 · 20:30R. Skacelik541291111113D. Heczko46101131392
LAug 30 · 17:29R. Skacelik379124121D. Heczko46111011143
WAug 30 · 15:00R. Skacelik4211119113D. Heczko25391121
LAug 20 · 13:30R. Skacelik391271191D. Heczko4314117113
WAug 20 · 10:30R. Skacelik45511117113D. Heczko3311541122
WAug 17 · 18:00R. Skacelik49911117113D. Heczko4511791172
WJul 28 · 20:00R. Skacelik51145711143D. Heczko541211118122
R. Skacelik10
WOct 4 · 08:30R. Skacelik2.00125811113E. Rychlik1.73101111892WOct 4 · 06:00D. Langer1.5711980R. Skacelik2.251311113LOct 2 · 09:16R. Skacelik1.92711991J. Mikula1.7811611113LOct 2 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.80111091192J. Schwan1.91712115113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Mikula1.7351111772R. Skacelik2.00116411113LOct 2 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.3014881182J. Levicky3.401211117113WSep 30 · 13:30V. Adamczyk2.20671181R. Skacelik1.6111118113LSep 30 · 12:30V. Adamczyk1.8312118113R. Skacelik1.831091181WSep 30 · 11:30R. Skacelik1.8011911113J. Cabak1.91711881WSep 30 · 10:30R. Vavrecka2.00611281R. Skacelik1.7311711113
D. Heczko10
LOct 4 · 08:00D. Langer1.361311113D. Heczko3.0011970LOct 4 · 06:30D. Heczko2.001391061E. Rychlik1.73111112113LOct 1 · 13:00V. Adamczyk1.67671111113D. Heczko2.1011119552LOct 1 · 12:00T. Petrek1.5351113113D. Heczko2.381141191LOct 1 · 11:00L. Martinak2.101111133D. Heczko1.6716110WOct 1 · 10:30D. Heczko2.20981711113V. Adamczyk1.61111115892WOct 1 · 08:59J. Mikula2.50611481D. Heczko1.5011611113WOct 1 · 08:30D. Heczko1.73811711113J. Mikula2.0011811782LOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:00J. Snr1.911211110113D. Heczko1.80103111272
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